Can Bo Nix be the quarterback the Broncos have been searching for?
On the 20th March 2012, the Denver Broncos agreed a five-year $96 million contract with one of the all-time great quarterbacks, Peyton Manning. It was a move that sent shockwaves through the NFL and excitement in Denver through the roof. It was also a move that paid off for the Broncos. Over his first three seasons in Denver, Manning showed no signs of slowing down, throwing for a combined 14,863 yards and 131 touchdowns. In 2013, he won his fifth league MVP in a season that ultimately ended with a Super Bowl loss to the Seattle Seahawks. By the 2015 season, age had started to catch up with him, but he bowed out from football in style that year with a Super Bowl 50 win over the Carolina Panthers. The perfect ending to both his NFL career and his spell in Denver. Little did Broncos fans know, as they celebrated the third Super Bowl victory in their team’s history, that over the next eight years they would not even return to the playoffs and they would not be able to find a replacement for Peyton Manning.
Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Brock Osweiler, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, Russell Wilson and Jarrett Stidham are the 12 quarterbacks to have started a game for the Broncos since Manning’s retirement. Throw in a strange game in the COVID season where the game started with Philip Lindsay in a wild cat formation, before wide receiver Kendall Hinton played quarterback, and you have an unlucky 13 starters for Denver. Starter number 14 is likely to be the number 12 pick from the 2024 draft (I don’t even want to think about the possibility of Zach Wilson starting another NFL game). Could the man with the shortest full name in NFL history, Bo Nix, be the one to finally end the Broncos’ quarterback carousel? I think so. Now, I’m not claiming in any way that he is the second coming of Peyton Manning and Super Bowl success beckons for the Broncos, but I think Bo Nix has the attributes to be a success under Sean Payton in Denver.
Let’s start by looking at what Sean Payton wants from his quarterback. He has repeatedly said this offseason that an NFL quarterback needs to be a “quick processor” and it’s important they make good decisions quickly and get the ball out efficiently and accurately. These are not traits that Russell Wilson had last season. Wilson was 43rd in the league in average time to throw, taking on average 3.06 seconds to get the ball out, and he had the 7th worst sack rate in the league, getting sacked 9.1% of the time he looked to pass. Getting the ball out efficiently and accurately are traits that Bo Nix has though, at least they are ones he had at the college level. Last season, Nix took on average 2.44 seconds to get the ball out (in comparison only Tua in the NFL got the ball out quicker) and Nix’s sack rate was just 1.1%. He was also the most accurate passer in college football, completing an impressive 77.4% of his passes. Now, we do have to be careful when extrapolating college football success to NFL success, but these stats at least show why Sean Payton was more than happy to use the 12th overall pick on him.
So, can Bo Nix replicate this college production in the NFL? I think he has every chance. For starters, he is joining a system and coach that suits his skillset. The major criticism he has faced is over his arm talent. It has been questioned whether he has the arm strength to make large downfield plays or to zip the ball quickly into tight windows. In a Sean Payton offense though, I don’t think this is a major issue. Payton will scheme around this and not put Nix in situations that ask him to do too much. Drew Brees (I had to mention him sooner or later) was another quarterback that faced doubts about his arm strength, and he did pretty well in a Sean Payton offense. It’s decision making and intelligence that Payton really values and, so far, he’s been impressed with Bo Nix’s intelligence. Talking about him this offseason, he’s said publicly that he is “farther along than most would be” and that “he’s extremely smart and has picked it up very quickly”. Payton was also full of praise for his style of quarterbacking after the rookie minicamp. He compared watching Nix play to “watching a good golfer” saying, “there’s a patience to how he plays. The ball comes out and…[he makes] pretty good decisions. With each play, [there is] the efficiency of how he’s operating.” It may be deemed lazy journalism, but there are undoubtedly favourable comparisons to be made between Bo Nix and Drew Brees. Intelligent, accurate, gets the ball out quickly and makes good decisions. The question is whether Nix can show these traits, that he certainly possesses, in the NFL.
Something that may help him make the step up from college to professional football is the presence in Denver of his favourite target in Oregon last season, Troy Franklin. Some NFL draft analysts had Franklin as a possible first-round draft pick, but he eventually fell all the way to day three, where Denver picked him up at the top of the fourth round. It was back at Bo Nix’s pro day that Troy Franklin caught the eye of the Broncos. By volunteering to catch for Nix as Denver assessed the quarterback, he got the opportunity to showcase himself, and Denver liked what they saw. Broncos GM George Paton said of Franklin, “We just got to know him a little more…We got to spend an hour or two with him, and we really liked the person.” They liked him so much that they had a second-round draft grade on him but with no second-round pick themselves, they never thought they had a chance of getting him. When the draft got to the end of day two though and Franklin was still on the board, Sean Payton spoke to his new quarterback about his former teammate and decided that if they wanted to draft him, they would need to be aggressive on day three. So, on Saturday morning, George Paton started to look for a trade partner so they could move up in the fourth round, and he eventually struck a deal with Seattle. Then, with the 102nd pick in the draft, the Denver Broncos reunited Troy Franklin and Bo Nix.
Both players have played down the benefit of playing together again but their close relationship was evident in the FaceTime call they shared after Franklin was drafted. Sean Payton has said, “It certainly can’t hurt”, and I can’t see how pairing two players who combined for 2,272 yards and 23 touchdowns over the last two years at Oregon can’t be something the Broncos can profit from. Having a receiver on the field that he connected with 142 times in college will help Nix get the ball out quickly and their timing should already be there. Franklin is a good route runner that Nix can depend on, and he is also a yards after catch monster. Nix just has to get the ball into Franklin’s hands and big plays can follow. Franklin does need to work on having safer hands, but I fully expect Sean Payton and his coaching team to help him iron out his flaws and to put him into positions where he will not need to make contested catches. Having a target on the field that he is so familiar with will also help Nix when the scheduled play breaks down. At Oregon, Franklin was one of the first players Nix looked for on improvised plays and their chemistry will help Nix also find him on an NFL field. In addition to Franklin, Bo Nix might also have another former Ducks teammate that will help him settle in. His center in his first season at Oregon, Alex Forsyth, is currently the frontrunner to replace Lloyd Cushenberry, and having such a familiar player in front of him can again only help Nix
Bo Nix may not be an NFL superstar in the making but, at the moment, that is not what the Broncos necessarily need. After eight years of turmoil at the quarterback position, they need a solid starter who will be there for a number of years and whom the front office can build a roster around. Bo Nix, in a Sean Payton system, can definitely turn out to be that.