Can you win the Superbowl without a WR1?
“I want to vomit every time I hear No:1 receiver, to be honest with you. It drives me crazy. I feel like we have a bunch of them” Clearly an exasperated Matt LeFleur has had enough of the constant chatter around his receiver core and who should be classed as the number one guy.
The Green Bay Packers have been without a typical WR1 since Davantae Adams left for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022. However, they now have one of the most exciting receiving cores in the league with an abundance of promising talent. Despite all this the questions keep coming and so we decided to find out if you really need a WR1 to reach the playoffs and then win a Superbowl.
When we talk about someone being a WR1, we think of a player who collects over one thousand yards in a season and normally eight or more touchdowns. We have looked at the last three years’ worth of data and found some interesting results.
2021 – 2022
If you look at the top ten wide receivers in this season, six of them played for a team that made it into the playoffs. Of the four players that didn’t make it all of them had over one thousand yards and over eight touchdowns, hitting all the metrics that would class them as a WR1.
On top of that if you look at the teams that made the playoffs ten of the fourteen all had a wide receiver that amassed over one thousand yards. That’s 72% of playoff teams with a WR1. The only teams that didn’t in this year were the Arizona Cardinals, Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans.
2022-2023
Not much change from the previous season but seven of the top 10 wide receivers made it to the playoffs. The only guys to miss out were Davante Adams for the Raiders, Amari Cooper for the Cleveland Browns and Amon-Ra St Brown for the Detroit Lions. Only St Brown had under eight touchdowns for the season but all three had over one thousand yards.
Again, we saw that ten of the fourteen teams who made the playoffs had a wide receiver with over one thousand yards. This time it was the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, LA Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs who didn’t have one. However, both the Chiefs and the Ravens had tight ends who became their “one-thousand-yard receiver”.
2023-2024
Last season we saw an increase again as nine of the top ten wide receivers made the playoffs, with only DJ Moore missing out with the Chicago Bears. However, you would class Moore as WR1 as he amassed over 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns.
There was also an increase in teams that had a wide receiver with over one thousand yards. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers didn’t, meaning that twelve of the fourteen teams did.
Looking at all the data then, for the majority of teams, if you want to make the playoffs you need a WR1. Each of the three years we have analysed over 70% of the teams that made the playoffs had a WR1 and as the years progressed more of the top ten wide receivers were on playoff teams.
What about if you want to make the Superbowl though?
We went a bit further back when it comes to Superbowl winners to see if there was a definitive correlation between lifting the Lombardi and having a WR1. The last ten years show that you don’t have to have a WR1 to win the Superbowl but only if you have one other specific combination.
In nine out of the last ten Superbowl’s the winning team has either had a WR1 or an elite quarterback/tight end combination. The New England Patriots won three times in the last ten seasons with the Tom Brady Rob Gronkowski combo. The Kansas City Chiefs have also done the same with Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
The other winners were the LA Rams in 2022 when Cooper Kupp broke many records with 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won in 2021 when Mike Evans went over one thousand yards and had thirteen touchdowns. The Denver Broncos won back in 2016 when they had not only Demaryius Thomas but also Emmanuel Sanders with over one thousand yards.
The only team who didn’t have a WR1 or an elite quarterback/tight end combo was the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018. Carson Wentz was their main quarterback until he got injured in week fourteen and then they went through the playoffs and Superbowl with Nick Foles. Wentz was ranked 23rd at quarterback throughout the season and Foles only started two regular season games. Although they didn’t have a wide receiver going over one thousand yards they did have tight end, Zack Ertz, who managed to and get eight touchdowns as well.
Conclusion
Overall, the data shows that you don’t need to have a “WR1” to win a Superbowl. However, if you don’t have one you need to have an elite quarterback/tight end combo.
Maybe the Packers can change this but them and LeFleur do not have history on their side.