Championship Games Preview

We are down to the final four and after this weekend we will know which teams will be facing off in Super Bowl LIX. As I have throughout the playoffs, I’m going to go through each match and for each team give a reason why they could get the win, before picking which of them I think will be moving on to New Orleans.

Commanders @ Eagles

Why the Commanders could win - Jayden Daniels

It is largely down to their rookie quarterback that the Washington Commanders have made it to their first NFC Championship game since 1992. So far in the postseason, Daniels has thrown for 567 yards, four touchdowns, had zero interceptions and rushed for 87 yards. With 4:41 left on the clock against Tampa Bay, he led Washington on a 51-yard drive that got the team into range for the game-winning field goal, and then helped the Commanders put up 45 points against the number one seeded Lions. Many experienced and fancied quarterbacks have already had their Super Bowl dreams extinguished after failing to show the composure and poise that Daniels has shown in the last two games. The Commanders are playing as a team that has nothing to lose and that makes them a very dangerous proposition for anyone.

The next team up for Daniels is one he has already had success against this season. His first game against the Eagles was hampered by a rib injury but in the matchup in week 16 he threw for 258 yards, five touchdowns and rushed for 81 yards as Washington secured a 36-33 victory. To get to the Super Bowl, the Eagles will have to find a way to stop Daniels, and this is going to be easier said than done. His passing is both accurate and explosive, while his running game gives defenses a whole other dimension to worry about. Even when teams think they have got after him, his ability to scramble out of the pocket extends plays, either by giving his receivers time to get free or helping him scramble for vital yards, as he did to get the team into field goal range against Tampa Bay. In two weeks’ time, Jayden Daniels could very well be the first rookie quarterback to line up in a Super Bowl.

Why the Eagles could win - Their defense

If any unit can stop Jayden Daniels, it is the Philadelphia Eagles’ defense. After finishing the regular season ranked 1st in yards allowed and 2nd in points allowed, they held the Green Bay Packers to 10 points in the Wildcard Round and the Los Angeles Rams to 22 points in the Divisional Round. This is a defense with talent at every level of the field. Jalen Carter has led the team up front and had a massive game against the Rams with two sacks, two tackles for loss and three quarterback hits. His play will be crucial on Sunday in putting Daniels under as much pressure as possible and hopefully preventing him from extending drives in the way he can. In the middle of the field, Defensive Player of the Year nominee Zack Baun has been instrumental to this defense’s success. He ended the regular season with 151 tackles and has 14 so far in the playoffs, as well as an interception against the Packers and a key fumble recovery against the Rams. Since Nakobe Dean’s injury against the Packers, Baun has taken over the responsibility of relaying defensive calls to the rest of the team, making him even more crucial to the Eagles’ hopes of victory. It is possibly the secondary, though, that will be the most important part of this defense against the Commanders. Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have had outstanding rookie seasons and veteran Darius Slay has been in brilliant form. Daniels may be difficult to stop but this secondary can take away his weapons.

Who will win?

Defenses win championships and so I am going for the Eagles to progress to the Super Bowl. The Commanders’ receivers will have a tough time against this Eagles secondary, while, on the other side of the ball, Washington will have their work cut out trying to stop Saquon Barkley.

Bills @ Chiefs

Why the Bills could win - Their balanced offense

The Bills ended the regular season with the number two ranked offense in terms of points scored and then they put up a combined 58 points over their first two playoff games. Josh Allen is obviously the leader of this offense, and he is having an MVP-level season. He has led the Bills to 12 wins in the last 13 their starters have played, and their only defeat in that time was a match in which they put up 42 points. He has been vital in both playoff wins, throwing for 272 yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos and rushing for two touchdowns against the Ravens. When he faced the Chiefs back in November, he threw for 262 yards, one touchdown and rushed for another, and he will undoubtedly be key to the Bills putting up points against them again on Sunday. The development of James Cook and the running game this season, though, means that the success of the Bills’ offense is no longer entirely on Allen’s shoulders. Cook rushed for 1009 yards and 16 touchdowns this regular season and followed that up with 120 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos in the Wildcard Round. While he didn’t score a touchdown against the Ravens, rookie running back Ray Davis did score, to go with the two rushing touchdowns that Allen got. While the Chiefs ended the regular season with the 4th ranked defense in terms of points allowed, they were only 8th in rushing yards allowed and 18th in passing yards allowed. This Bills offense will move the ball against the Chiefs, whether through the air or on the ground, and could very well score enough points to lead Buffalo to their first Super Bowl in twenty-one years.

Why the Chiefs could win - Patrick Mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs are playing in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship game. Prior to 2018, the first in this run of AFC Championship game appearances, the Chiefs had not played in the game since 1993. So, what changed for them in 2018? Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback.

Their previous six AFC Championship game appearances led to four Super Bowl appearances, three Super Bowl rings and three Super Bowl MVP awards for Mahomes. He is a man that has continuously stepped up for the big game and has proved time and time again that he has the mentality and ability to win. While he had an underwhelming regular season by his own high standards, failing to make the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career, he still threw for almost 4000 yards and 26 touchdowns, numbers that are not overly dissimilar to his numbers from last season – a season that ended with another Super Bowl ring.

Playoff games often come down to moments and Mahomes has shown repeatedly that he has it in him to get his side over the line, most famously with 13 seconds to go against the Bills in 2021. His touchdown throw to Travis Kelce last week, in mid-air as he was being tackled to the ground, again reminded us that he is a quarterback that is capable of doing things that no other quarterback can, especially on the biggest stage when it matters. Mahomes in the playoffs is a difficult man to beat and one the Bills have failed to on three previous occasions. It will be no surprise to see Patrick Mahomes playing in another Super Bowl in two weeks’ time.

Who will win?

I think this is the year that the Bills finally get past Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Their offense is the most balanced it has ever been, and they are more than capable of outscoring the Chiefs. The fact it is Mahomes at Arrowhead, though, means I cannot make this prediction confidently.

Dan Rowe