Wild Card Weekend is in the books and we move onto the best weekend of the year, the Divisional Round. After almost getting my predictions spot on last week with five out of six correct (I did not see the Chargers performing so badly), it is time to look ahead to this week’s matchups. As I did last week, I’m going to go through each one and for each team give a reason why they could get the win, before picking which of them I think will be playing on Championship weekend.

So, let’s go through the matches in the order they will be played.

Why the Texans could win - Their defense

The Texans’ defense had a day against the Chargers last week with four interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown, and four sacks. This was only the fifth time in playoff history a team has achieved this and they were the first team to do so since 2002. Two 23-year-olds led them on Saturday – Will Anderson Jr, who had 1.5 sacks, 3 QB hits and 1 tackle for loss and Derek Stingley Jr, who shone in the secondary with 2 interceptions, 2 forced incompletions and only 5 catches allowed off 10 targets. They now face a Chiefs offense that has failed to score above 30 points yet this season and if they replicate last week’s performance, they have a chance of causing an upset at Arrowhead.

Why the Chiefs could win - Steve Spagnuolo’s defense

The Kansas City Chiefs ended the regular season with 15 wins and the number one seed in the AFC and this was largely thanks to the defense. They finished fourth in points allowed and Steve Spagnuolo has built a unit that could potentially earn him his fourth Super Bowl ring since joining the Chiefs as DC in 2019. During last year’s Super Bowl run, the Chiefs faced the explosive offenses of the Dolphins, Bills, Ravens and the 49ers and managed to hold them to an average of 15.75 points. This defense could have a similar level of success, and they start this year’s run facing a Texans offense that has struggled at times this season. Despite a more promising showing last week, I can see Spagnuolo shutting down CJ Stroud and helping Kansas City get to yet another AFC Championship game.

Who will win?

You would have to be a brave person to bet against the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the postseason. It will be a low scoring, and possibly close, game but the Chiefs defense will dominate the Texans and Mahomes will do enough when it really matters. We will be back at Arrowhead next week for the AFC championship game.

Why the Commanders could win - Jayden Daniels

The number two overall pick has had an outstanding debut season and has helped to turn a Washington offense that was ranked 25th last season in points scored into the number five ranked offense this year. This weekend, they face the best offense in the league and so they will have to put up plenty of points if they want to advance to the NFC Championship game. Against Tampa Bay last week, Daniels had a game that belied his rookie status, throwing for 268 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and I expect another good game from him this weekend. Daniels is a multi-faceted quarterback and matches up well against this Lions defense. They gave up the third most passing yards in the regular season and the blitz-heavy approach they used to shut down Darnold and the Vikings in their last match won’t work as well against a quarterback as mobile as Daniels. I can see him putting up plenty of points against the Lions and the only question will be whether he can put up enough to win.

Why the Lions could win - Their explosive offense

This Lions offense has been spectacular this season. They scored the most points in the regular season, the most touchdowns, had the second most yards and put up 40 or more points six times. This is an offence with a Pro Bowl quarterback who threw for 4629 yards and 37 touchdowns this year; a Pro Bowl running back who had 1929 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns; a Pro Bowl wide receiver who had 115 receptions, 1263 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns; and one of the best offensive lines in the league, two of whom earned Pro Bowl call ups. Add in Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, the returning David Montgomery and the play calling genius of Ben Johnson and this offense is almost unstoppable, especially for a middle of the road Washington defense that finished 18th in points allowed. This offense could very well carry the Lions all the way to their first ever Super Bowl.

Who will win?

I can see this being a high-scoring and exciting shootout and I expect this Lions offense to have too much for Washington. The Lions will march on to host next week’s NFC Championship game.

Why the Rams could win - Their young defense

This young Rams defense had an incredible day against Minnesota in the wildcard round last weekend. They equalled a postseason record of nine sacks, scored a touchdown off a recovered fumble and held a highly talented Vikings offense to just nine points. They now face an Eagles offense that, outside of Saquon Barkley, struggled against the Packers, with quarterback Jalen Hurts only completing 13 passes for 131 yards. They do need to find a way to stop Barkley, who rushed for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns against them back in week 12, but Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner and Byron Young can apply pressure on this Eagles offense and get after Hurts, who has been sacked 38 times this season. This Rams’ defense has grown so much over the past few weeks and are now a completely different prospect to the one the Eagles last faced. Since that previous encounter in week 12, leaving out the shootout win over the Bills and the Seahawks game where their starters were rested, the Rams have allowed just 14, 6, 9, 9 and 9 points. The Eagles will not find it as easy to score points against the Rams this time and their defense will keep them in the game.

Why the Eagles could win - Vic Fangio’s defense

Rams head coach Sean McVay has described Vic Fangio’s defensive scheme as the most difficult to deal with in the NFL, and it is not one that he has faired well against in the past. In 2018, while serving as DC in Chicago, Fangio held McVay’s Rams to just 6 points in a 15-6 defeat for LA and then the Patriots replicated his scheme in the Super Bowl as they held the Rams to just 3 points. In November, they faced off again, this time with Fangio as the DC of the Eagles. While Saquon Barkley’s 255 rushing yards made headlines in that game, Fangio again got the better of McVay, limiting the Rams to 20 points and sacking Matthew Stafford 5 times. This Eagles defense was ranked 2nd in points allowed this regular season and 1st in yards allowed and with Fangio’s record of outmanoeuvring Sean McVay, the Rams could have a tough time putting up points on Sunday.

Who will win?

For the Rams to win they would need to stop Saquon Barkley and overcome Vic Fangio’s defense. I think this is too much of an ask for this young team and it will be the Eagles progressing to the NFC Championship game.

Why the Ravens could win - Their running game

The Ravens did what they do best in their wildcard matchup with the Steelers as they rushed all over them for almost 300 yards. Derrick Henry ended up with 186 yards and 2 touchdowns and Lamar Jackson ran for 81 yards himself. The Steelers’ linebackers were visibly confused at times on Saturday over whether to go with Lamar or with Henry and this led to some big gains on the ground. It is a running game that is incredibly hard to stop, as the Bills know first-hand. These two teams faced off back in week 4 and Derrick Henry rushed for 199 yards and a touchdown against them. Expect another big day on the ground for the Ravens on Sunday.

Why the Bills could win - Their passing offense

The Bills finished the regular season with the number two ranked offense in points scored and the development of James Cook at running back had a big part to play in this. But, on Sunday, Cook will be up against the best rush defence in the league and while he will have an impact, he will not be the match-winner. Josh Allen’s arm, on the other hand, could be. While the Ravens’ defense is ranked number one in rushing yards allowed, they are the second worst in passing yards allowed and Josh Allen is having an MVP-level season. Against the Broncos in the wildcard round, Allen spread the ball around eight different receivers as he threw for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns, and I expect him to have a big day against the Ravens on Sunday.

Who will win?

This should be the game of the round and could be too tight to call. I’m going with the Ravens as I can’t see the Bills dealing with their dual-threat offense. If the Ravens don’t score points on the ground, they will score points through the air. The Bills will need some Josh Allen magic to win this game, and I think he will fall just short.

Dan Rowe

Divisional Round Preview

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