Is Bucs vs Commanders the hardest game to predict in the Wildcard Round?
Sunday Night Football sees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Washington Commanders in the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs.
This sees rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels under head coach Dan Quinn, his first year with the Commanders, take on the Bucs and the resurgent Baker Mayfield.
In a prime time slot, this could be NFL cinema. But who wins? Here is why this game could be the hardest to predict.
Experience vs Youth
In this game, you have two quarterbacks at very different stages of their careers.
For Daniels, he was a rookie, about to play his first ever playoff game. Meanwhile, Mayfield is in his seventh season as a pro after being drafted first overall in 2018.
Whilst Daniels might be a rookie, he is surrounded by a wealth of experience, whether this is wide receiver Terry McLaurin, tight end Zach Ertz, defensive tackle Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, linebacker Bobby Wagner and cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
For the Bucs, whilst they also have the experience of wide receiver Mike Evans, nose tackle Vita Vea, linebacker Lavonte David and safety Antoine Winfield, they also have two rookies who have excelled this season in running back Bucky Irving and wide receiver Jalen McMillan.
You would give Mayfield the edge, given Daniels is going to play his first playoff game on the road. Given how the Bucs came agonizingly close to reaching the NFC Championship last season, this team will have thought about that game all offseason. Led by a quarterback who has overcome plenty of adversity during his NFL career, this Tampa Bay team will be on a mission.
However, Daniels and these Commanders team have shown no fear this season and should be encouraged by their 12-5 record compared with the Bucs’ 10-7. Whilst the only playoff team they have beaten is the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, they ran other teams close in their defeats.
Whilst they lost to the Bucs by 17 in Week One, opening day results should not be taken too seriously and their other four losses all came by eight points or fewer.
They lost to the Baltimore Ravens by seven points in Week Six, to the Pittsburgh Steelers by one in Week 10 and by eight in both Week 11 and 12 to the Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, respectively. This is not a team that has been blown out and with five straight wins in a row, they should not be taken lightly.
Whilst the Commanders have only beaten one playoff team, the Bucs have beaten three. They may have lost by 19 to the Broncos in Week Three, but they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime and are only one of two teams to beat the NFC number one seed Detroit Lions this season.
Defense could be the difference.
With a 0.3 difference in third down quarterback rating between Daniels and Mayfield, and only five quarterbacks who have played eight games or more showcasing a better number, both quarterbacks are both likely to make some crucial plays on Sunday.
However, both quarterbacks also reside in the top 10 for most sacked this season. The defenses of Tampa and Washington will hope to be at their best if they want to get to the QB. This could be where the Commanders have the edge.
They have the sixth most interception return yards this season, with the Bucs bottom of the list, and also the third-best pass defense compared to Tampa, who have the fourth worst.
However, Daniels was sacked seven more times than Mayfield and the run defense for the Buccaneers was ranked fourth, with the Commanders positioned 29th.
If the pass defense is going to excel for the Commanders, then expect Bucky Irving to have a day against their poor run defense. Already with three 100+ yard rushing games this season, he could easily add a fourth against Washington.
Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr are unlikely to make an impact due to the excellent run defense of Tampa Bay. Daniels was their lead rusher in 2024 and with the pass defense struggling for the Bucs, Daniels is more likely to have success using his arm than his leg, with McLaurin and Ertz the main targets.
Whether it's the Bucs' defense stopping the Commanders passing game, or the Commanders stopping the Bucs, if one of these units has some success, then this will go a long way towards them winning the game and advancing.
Prediction: Bucs 27–24 Commanders
The Bucs have home advantage and a more experienced quarterback, both in the regular and postseason, as well as better offensive weapons.
All signs point towards Tampa Bay winning this game, despite the Commanders having a better record in a tougher division.
This could easily be proved wrong in what is arguably the hardest game to call of this year's Wildcard Round.