Lamar Jackson – Will he stay or will he go?
Five teams Lamar Jackson could be playing for in 2023.
The future of Lamar Jackson should have been sorted out long before this offseason. Drafted in 2018, the former Louisville QB went on to become the second youngest league MVP in just his second season in the league. The Baltimore Ravens had found their franchise quarterback and built their entire offense around Jackson and his outstanding rushing ability. The Ravens were undoubtedly Lamar Jackson’s team but somehow we’re now in the situation where his rookie contract is about to expire and he could be about to enter free agency. How has it got to this point?
Last offseason Jackson, who represents himself instead of having an agent, was unable to agree a new contract deal with the Ravens, reportedly turned down a $250 million six-year contract that would have had an average annual value of $49 million. The issue for him was that only $133 million of it was guaranteed which, although more than the guaranteed money in the contracts that Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson signed last season, was significantly less than the $230 million that Deshaun Watson got. The Ravens were reluctant to offer more to a player who has suffered injuries the last couple of seasons due to his physical style of play and so they exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie contract for $23 million instead. Now, out of contract, Lamar Jackson’s future is in question again. So, what could happen this offseason and where could Lamar Jackson be playing in 2023?
Baltimore Ravens
I will be shocked if the Ravens don’t use the franchise tag on Jackson. It is likely they will place the exclusive franchise tag on him, tying him to the Ravens for one more year at an annual salary of around $45 million. They could place the non-exclusive franchise tag of $32.416 million on him but this would mean other teams would be allowed to negotiate a contract with him and then potentially get him for two first round picks. The Ravens could be tempted to do this and test the market to see if any teams would be tempted to given Jackson the guaranteed money he wants and if it happened, they would always have the option to match the contract offer, but I think the exclusive franchise tag is the more likely option. However, Jackson has publicly said that he would not play under the tag so the Ravens will likely need to still negotiate a new contract deal with him.
This is the most probable outcome as the Ravens have built their entire offence around him and want him to be their quarterback for a long time. Head coach John Harbaugh has been quoted as saying there is a 200 percent chance he’s back next year and he believes that Lamar wants to end his career as a Raven. Although a post from Jackson last month saying, “When you have something good, you don’t play with it. You don’t take chances losing it. You don’t neglect it”, has shown his displeasure at the Ravens’ inability to offer him the contract he believes he deserves. Then there was the fact that Jackson didn’t even travel with the team for their playoff game in Cincinnati. He may have been injured but you would expect a team leader to be there and helping out in any way that he could. There is a chance that with the Ravens’ reluctance to offer him the amount of guaranteed money he is seeking and with Jackson’s relationship with the team starting to sour over these negotiations, the Baltimore Ravens trade Lamar Jackson this offseason.
Atlanta Falcons
If Lamar Jackson was to leave Baltimore, this is the landing spot that makes the most sense to me. When Arthur Smith took over in Atlanta two years ago, the former Titans OC was expected to turn around the Falcons offense. After a disappointing first season with Matt Ryan under centre, the Falcons showed signs of improvement in 2022 with a very effective rushing game, finishing third in the league in terms of rushing yards per game. They desperately need a quarterback though. Marcus Mariota hasn’t worked out and there are still large question marks over rookie Desmond Ridder. Lamar Jackson could be the man to take this offense to the next level and he would fit in well with this rush heavy scheme. Teaming him up with rookie receiver Drake London would be a very exciting prospect as would be the possibility that he could get the best out of 2021’s 4th overall pick, Kyle Pitts. Could Jackson and Pitts strike up a partnership akin to the one he has with Mark Andrews in Baltimore? The main stumbling block to Jackson joining any team will be money but the Falcons are in a good position relevant to other teams on this front. With key players under rookie contracts, they currently have around $56 million in cap space, the second most in the league.
New York Jets
The Jets have made no secret this offseason about wanting to swing big for an experienced quarterback. The feeling in New York is they are a QB away from having a Superbowl challenging roster and as a result the Jets are being linked with every top quarterback who could be available. Obviously, in a lot of ways, moving for a player of Jackson’s quality and age would be a very good move for the Jets and would possibly set up the franchise for a number of years to come, as opposed to just the next couple of years if they went for a player such as Rodgers. Jackson would be very expensive though in terms of salary and draft picks. The Jets are currently around $1 million over the cap so they would need to create space, although this is something they would need to do for any new QB. Whether he will be worth the Jets giving up a haul of first round picks is another question. Personally, I don’t see him being a great fit for them. The Jets play a zone offense rather than a power rush-heavy one and if you are going to go all in on Lamar Jackson, it would make sense to build the offense around him, as Baltimore have. With the weapons that the Jets have on offense and the potential it has, I don’t think rebuilding their offense would be a good move for them. They would be better off at finding a QB who could slot more easily into their offense and get the best out of their talented young receiving corps. Another barrier to a move to New York is the Ravens’ possible reluctance to trade him to an AFC team, especially to one that will be challenging.
Carolina Panthers
David Tepper has been desperate to have an elite franchise quarterback in Carolina ever since he took over the Panthers. In 2021, they thought they could be getting Matthew Stafford before he ended up choosing a move to LA. Last offseason, they were desperate to bring in Deshaun Watson before he ended up picking a move to the Browns. This offseason, could it be Lamar Jackson that the Panthers aggressively pursue? In all likelihood, yes. This is a move that could actually make a lot of sense too. The Panthers are another team which would be a good fit for Jackson with a rush heavy offense that finished top ten last season in rushing yards. They have a decent offensive line and in DJ Moore they have a very highly talented receiving option for any new QB to throw to. Jackson and recently appointed head coach, Frank Reich would also be a good fit with the former Colts HC favouring a physical run-heavy game. He was quoted just the week in saying, “It’s a passing league but you have to run the ball to be a championship team”. Cap space could be an issue with the Panthers currently around $9 million over the cap but there are ways that this could be overcome. I can see the Panthers going all in to try and get Jackson and the possibility of Frank Reich building his new offense around Lamar Jackson is a very real and exciting one.
Washington Commanders
Carson Wentz vowed to ‘take command’ last offseason when he joined the Commanders but it hasn’t worked out. He is likely to be cut after just one season which, as he’s not due anymore guaranteed money, would free up an extra $26 million in cap space. Add this to the $8 million that they already have and financially they could be in a position to go after a franchise quarterback. Lamar Jackson would be a good fit for this team. Despite being the only NFC East team to miss out on the playoffs, their 8-8-1 record was only half a game out from the postseason, and they have a lot of the pieces in place to push on. They already have a top defense, finishing the season fourth in yards allowed and seventh in points allowed, and they have some intriguing weapons on offense for any new QB. I’ve wanted Terry McLaurin, one of the top receivers in the league, to play under a top quarterback for a number of seasons now and in Jahan Dotson they have an impressive and very promising rookie. Brian Robinson also looked extremely promising in a debut season that started later than planned, after being shot in the leg in an attempted robbery pre-season, and he is complemented well at running back by Antonio Gibson. I can definitely seeing Lamar Jackson working in this Washington offense and potentially taking these promising players to another level.