Paper Tigers
It was such an exciting day.
There I was, sitting in my seat at U.S. Bank Stadium next to my beloved father, a life-long Minnesota Vikings fan from the very beginning all the way back to 1961, with a Vikings Legacy Brick to prove it. It was the first playoff game either one of us had ever attended, made possible in its entirety by my amazing family, specifically my brother-in-law, procuring tickets for us as surprise birthday gifts.
The atmosphere in the stadium was almost indescribable. You could feel the anticipation build with every passing minute, the ‘countdown to kickoff’ clock drawing ever closer to 0:00. Vikings legends from years gone by were seemingly around every corner. Chuck Foreman, Bud Grant, Adrian Peterson, all took their turns gracing the jumbotron, each in their own way eliciting ever more boisterous roars from the sellout home crowd to which they needed no introduction.
John Randle was the first person out of the Vikings tunnel, riling the crowd up with the same intensity with which he played. The unmistakable voice of Alan Roach boomed out the names of the Vikings defensive starters to the thunderous approval of the roaring crowd. A perfectly-timed military flyover capped a stirring National Anthem, and the now famous Skol Chant, something you have to be a part of to truly appreciate, was as awesome a sports experience I’ve ever been a part of. The bellowing tone of the gjallarhorn brought every last one of the 66,000+ fans (save for a contingent of New York Giant faithful) to their feet amidst a din that seemed to almost absorb you with its enormity. After the Giants had won the toss and deferred, it was game on.
The Vikings’ offense wasted no time, embarking on a 13-play drive that culminated in a Kirk Cousins touchdown on a QB sneak, and Viking fans so long starved for any semblance of sustained playoff success erupted with a noise rivaling a fighter jet accelerating for takeoff.
But less than three-and-a-half minutes later, Saquon Barkley broke free down the left sideline for a 28-yard touchdown run, capping a far-too-easy 6-play drive that tied the game, silenced the crowd, and was, to Viking fans, an all too familiar sign of things to come.
The Vikings’ defense would spend the remainder of the game making Daniel Jones look like Steve Young reincarnate, and despite a solid-if-not-spectacular effort by Cousins and the offense, the Vikings would fall to the Giants 31-24 on their home field, vindicating every naysayer that had labeled the 13-win Vikings as frauds.
The Giants followed up this dynamic offensive performance by being all but shutout the following week at Philadelphia, managing but a garbage-time touchdown in a game that was over by halftime. The fallout for the Vikings ended with the dismissal of defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, a coach with over 30 years of NFL experience and part of two Super Bowl-winning coaching staffs.
Donatell had done himself no favors, forcing a 3-4 defensive scheme on a group of players that had spent most if not all of their careers in Mike Zimmer’s 4-3. The consequences of this ‘square peg, round hole’ approach were evident early in the season during a week 2 blowout loss at the hands of the eventual NFC Champion Eagles. Receivers were running free in the middle of the field, most notably on a long touchdown from Jalen Hurts to Quez Watkins, a play in which the nearest Viking defender may as well have been in Pittsburgh.
It was a theme that would repeat itself with infuriating frequency throughout the season. An offense led by a veteran QB, the eventual NFL Offensive Player of the Year Justin Jefferson, a top-10 RB in Dalvin Cook and the midseason acquisition of top-5 TE T.J. Hockenson, would routinely have to pull rabbit after rabbit out of their proverbial hat to bail out a defense that at times looked completely lost, at others completely inept, and had high-end players running into each other as late as the Barkley touchdown run in the playoffs.
The 13-4 record the Vikings compiled went a long way in covering up these troubling deficiencies to the casual observer, but those paying closer attention knew the truth. This was a slow, aging defense playing for a new coaching staff in an unfamiliar scheme, and offenses around the league from the high-flying Eagles to the bumbling Chicago Bears knew it. And they feasted.
The Vikings defense finished the 2022 season ranked 31st in the league, costing a well-established coordinator his job less than a calendar year after his hiring. With aging starters, little if any depth, and a slew of troublesome contracts, General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Head Coach Kevin O’Connell will have some very difficult decisions to make in the coming offseason.
And those difficult decisions are not just limited to the defense. A salary cap situation that is among the tightest in the league has created an atmosphere in which nothing is off the table, nothing (save for Cousins’ contract) is guaranteed, and no roster spot is safe. Heading into 2023, the Vikings are around $24.5 million over the cap. A predicament that dire demands that even the most indispensable players’ contracts be examined, and every possible means of creating cap space be considered.
Here is a position-by-position snapshot of the Vikings notable players and contracts, their impacts on the 2023 salary cap, and some options for how to deal with them.
QUARTERBACK Age Year Cap Hit
Kirk Cousins 35 12 $36.3M
Nick Mullens 28 6 UFA
The Vikings made NFL history when they signed Cousins to a fully guaranteed 3-year, $84 million deal, the first of its kind in league history, and they’ve been living the hellish salary cap consequences ever since. Don’t get me wrong, Cousins has been a more than serviceable QB since joining the Vikings in 2018, and his compensation is right where is should be when compared to similar QBs, but the fully guaranteed nature of the deal has made maneuvering the salary cap increasingly difficult for a team strapped for cap space. Cousins has restructured in the past, but has done so reluctantly and never for less money. The result has been a multi-year process of kicking the cliched can down the road, and eventually there will be nowhere else to kick it. That may happen this year. If the two sides can’t agree on a restructure, Cousins will play out this season, the final year of his current contract, and it will severely limit the number of options the Vikings have to deal with the rest of their roster. Cousins, who is currently the only QB on the active roster, has made it clear he wants to retire as a Viking, so a restructure seems likely. That could be a win for both sides in that the Vikings get some much-needed cap relief, and are then more able to surround Cousins with higher-level talent.
Potential FA Targets / projected salary:
Drew Lock – still only 26, could use a new start, $2.0M
Blaine Gabbert – worked with Tom Brady for 2 years, $2.0M
Mike White – showed flashes with Jets, still only 27, $3.5M
RUNNING BACK Age Year Cap Hit
Dalvin Cook 28 7 $14.1M
C.J. Ham 30 7 $3.8M
Alexander Mattison 24 5 UFA
Head Coach Kevin O’Connell likes to pass. A lot. The Vikings threw on over 64% of their offensive plays in 2022, the 3rd highest rate in the league. It begs the question whether a team scrounging for cap space can afford to pay a still-productive-but-aging RB over $14 million if they intend to pass at the rate they did last season. Cook averaged 15.5 rushing attempts per game in 2022, his lowest since 2018. The Vikings could look to trade Cook, a move that would save around $8M in cap space for next year. They could also cut him and save between $6-9M depending on the timing. Cook is still in his prime, and his compensation is commensurate with similar RBs, so a restructure seems highly unlikely. Ham is a hometown favorite and a versatile Pro Bowl fullback, but the O’Connell-led team struggled to utilize him to the best of his ability, and he is entering the last year of his current deal. If the team does look to trade Cook, resigning Mattison would be a possibility, or they could pursue the RB structure employed by the two most recent Super Bowl teams in the Chiefs and the Eagles, utilizing multiple RBs at lower salaries to free up cap space for other positions. The NFL has been devaluing the RB position for years, and the Vikings may need to follow suit given their cap constraints.
Possible FA Targets / projected salary:
Boston Scott – Fits multiple RB scheme, Super Bowl cred, $1.1M
Raheem Mostert – Blazing speed, injury history, $2.4M
D’Onta Foreman – resurrected career in CAR, still only 26, $3.6M
WIDE RECEIVER Age Year Cap Hit
Adam Thielen 33 10 $20.0M
Justin Jefferson 24 4 $4.2M
K.J. Osborn 26 4 $2.8M
Jalen Reagor 24 4 $2.4M
Thielen’s career trajectory, taking him from NCAA Division III Minnesota State-Mankato to one of the top receivers in the NFL is nothing short of astounding. His contributions to the team and to the community through his foundation cannot be overstated, and the Vikings are a better organization for Thielen having been a part of it. But Thielen is in his mid-30’s now with three straight years of declining per-game production, and the Vikings are going to have to sell half of Minneapolis to sign fellow WR and emerging superstar Jefferson to an extension, a move that would be better done sooner than later. There is no chance Thielen plays with the Vikings in 2023 under his current contract terms. Thielen and his family can read the writing on the wall, and some have already made clear their disappointment that Thielen may not finish his career as a Viking. It remains to be seen if there will be a market for 30-something WR’s in the NFL this coming year, but it’s hard to envision any team paying Thielen almost $20 million. Maybe in the end he restructures with a hometown discount to stay with Minnesota, but that is no guarantee. Osborn is a fine number three and Reagor is a return specialist the Vikings traded for in early 2022. If Thielen moves on, the Vikings may seek a cost-efficient veteran leader for this young group of receivers.
Potential FA targets / projected salary:
Jarvis Landry – wrong side of 30, recent injury issues, $3.5M
Marvin Jones, Jr. – similar game to Thielen, TD hawk, $3.4M
Robert Woods – had huge year with O’Connell as OC, $7.0M
TIGHT END Age Year Cap Hit
T.J. Hockenson 26 5 $9.3M
Johnny Mundt 29 6 $1.2M
Nick Muse 25 2 $870K
Irv Smith, Jr. 24 4 UFA
The mid-season trade for T.J. Hockenson paid immediate dividends for the Vikings, addressing a position of frustratingly deficient production while providing Cousins an elite pass-catching tight end, something he’s sorely lacked since his days in Washington, but it also added even more consternation to an already challenging cap situation. Hockenson is due to make over $9 million in 2023, and is an unrestricted free agent in 2024. The Vikings would love to, and plan to, sign Hockenson to a lucrative extension, but that money has to come from somewhere. Mundt was signed as a free agent last season, and Muse had zero catches his rookie season. Smith, Jr. has battled injuries and inconsistencies, and the team has no plans to resign him.
Potential FA Targets / projected salary:
Maxx Williams – went to college at Minnesota, $1.1M
O.J. Howard – former 1st round pick, still only 28, $1.0M
Dan Arnold – still only 27, showed flashes in CAR, $2.1M
OFFENSIVE LINE Age Year Cap Hit
Brian O'Neill - RT 28 6 $19.7M
Christian Darrisaw - LT 24 3 $3.6M
Ezra Cleveland - G 25 4 $3.4M
Chris Reed - G 31 8 $2.8M
Ed Ingram - G 24 2 $1.4M
Garrett Bradbury - C 27 5 UFA
For all the well-deserved flack the previous administration of Rick Spielman and Mike Zimmer took for neglecting the offensive line for far too long, they absolutely nailed it when they drafted their two tackles. O’Neill is among if not the best right tackle in the NFL, and Darrisaw made huge strides in his second year, showing flashes of the dominance requisite of an elite NFL left tackle. O’Neill’s injury is an issue heading into 2023, but there isn’t much the cash-strapped Vikings can do to address it. The interior of the line remains a concern as well, as Cleveland regressed in 2023 after a promising sophomore year, and Ed Ingram failed to impress as a rookie. Heading into 2022, the Vikings declined the 5th year option on Bradbury, who then proceeded to put forth by far his best season and now enters free agency. Reed filled in at center for Bradbury, who missed the playoff game against the Giants with an injury of his own and could be an option if the team can’t resign him.
Potential FA targets / projected salary:
Jason Kelce – C – big name, but turns 36 next year, $11.9M
Ethan Pocic – C – less expensive alternative to Bradbury, $7.2M
Nate Davis – G – could solidify G position if not sold on Ingram, $7.4M
DEFENSIVE FRONT Age Year Cap Hit
Za'Darius Smith - OLB 31 9 $17.0M
Danielle Hunter - OLB 29 9 $13.1M
Eric Kendricks - ILB 31 9 $11.4M
Dalvin Tomlinson - DT 29 7 $7.5M
Harrison Phillips - DT 27 6 $6.8M
Jordan Hicks - ILB 31 9 $6.5M
Smith was a huge free agent pickup for the Vikings, a team that lacked any kind of pass rush in 2021 due in part to Hunter’s lingering injuries and resulting ineffectiveness. He paid immediate dividends, recording eight sacks in his first ten games as a Viking. But a knee issue limited his production the latter part of the season, and he managed only two sacks the rest of the way. Hunter, a DE by trade, rebounded from consecutive disappointing and injury-plagued seasons, but was seemingly miscast as an OLB. Kendricks struggled mightily in Donatell’s 3-4, and Hicks wasn’t much better. Tomlinson was fine as a DT, but is due a new contract, and Phillips underwhelmed as a free agent in his first season with the Vikings. This group could see all kinds of changes in 2023, starting with the scheme new defensive coordinator Brian Flores plans to run. This group is older, and there is money to be saved at all levels either by restructuring deals or moving on from players that have proven less than effective or are simply too expensive for the cap-strapped Vikings to keep.
Potential FA targets / projected salary:
Devin Bush – ILB – former 10th overall pick, still young, $3.1M
Jadeveon Clowney – DE – alternative if the team moves on from Smith, $10.0M
Jerry Tillery – DT – younger alternative to Tomlinson, $7.8M
DEFENSIVE BACKS Age Year Cap Hit
Harrison Smith - FS 34 12 $19.1M
Cameron Dantzler - CB 25 4 $3.0M
Lewis Cine - SS 24 2 $2.6M
Andrew Booth, Jr. - CB 23 2 $1.9M
Camryn Bynam - CB 25 3 $1.1M
Akayleb Evans - CB 24 2 $1.1M
Josh Metellus - SS 25 4 $1.0M
Patrick Peterson - CB 32 13 UFA
First-year GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah invested heavily in this group in the 2022 NFL Draft, but injuries completely derailed the rookie seasons of first-round safety Cine (compound leg fracture) and second-round cornerback Booth, Jr. (quad, knee). This forced Bynum and Evans into far more action than they were ready for, which combined with the struggles of the defensive front in front of them led to a 31st ranked pass defense. Ostensibly if the defensive front improves in 2023 this group could be better, but two second-year players coming back from serious injuries is a major question mark. Smith has been the cornerstone of this defense for over a decade, but he is entering his 13th season, and the Vikings all but have to restructure his deal to keep him on the roster. They could potentially save over $15M against the cap by cutting him after June 1st, but Smith is a veteran leader for this group, and the Vikings want to keep him. Peterson could be resigned to add depth and veteran leadership as well, but he was clearly overmatched at times in 2023. He could potentially benefit from a move to safety at this point in his career.
Potential FA targets / projected salary
Jimmie Ward – S – backup plan for Smith contract/Cine health, $7.6M
Troy Hill – CB – veteran depth, $3.6M
Rock Ya-Sin – CB – higher end, pricey but a really good player $10.8M
Clearly the Vikings front office has a lot of work to do this offseason. Between a new defensive coordinator and the likely departure of a number of veteran players, this organization will have its hands full trying to pull everything together into one cohesive unit for 2023. A lot of eyes will be watching. This team proved the negatives and the detractors right in their home playoff loss to the Giants. Now its on them to silence those critics.
CREDITS:
overthecap.com for player cap hits and projected savings
spotrac.com for projected FA salaries