The Importance Of 2023 For Trey Lance
When the San Francisco 49ers traded up to draft Trey Lance third overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, big things were expected of him. In just his third season as a pro, his future as a starter for the team is in question.
This is largely due to a combination of an injury-hit 2022 campaign and the subsequent rise of Mr Irrelevant, Brock Purdy.
His future depends a lot on how the 2023 season goes.
Overcoming Injury Concerns
When Lance was drafted in 2021, it was widely expected that he would sit behind Jimmy Garoppolo for at least one season.
When the Niners missed out on a second Super Bowl appearance with Kyle Shanahan as their head coach, it was seen that it was Lance’s time. He got the nod to start but did not get off to the best start as San Francisco lost to the Chicago Bears in rain-soaked conditions. This is the team who ended the season as the worst team in the league. Lance did not perform well.
In the 19-10 loss, Lance threw for just 164 yards, with zero touchdowns and one interception. Alongside a 46% completion percentage, this was not the performance Niners fans were dreaming of.
However, this was just one game, in conditions that no quarterback would want. Unfortunately, in Week Two, Lance suffered a season ending injury against the Seattle Seahawks. Garoppolo played in his place and his injury saw Purdy come in.
The 49ers reached the NFC Championship game and ended it with Christian McCaffrey taking snaps as the quarterback due to injuries to Purdy and Josh Johnson in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. There were questions as to how the Niners would have done with a top quarterback under centre. Lance will have been wondering what if.
This is a “What Have You Done For Me Lately” league. The current feeling of Lance around the NFL is that he simply hasn’t been on the field enough to know if he is the guy and worth the several first rounders they gave up in order to draft him.
After all, he only started 17 games at the collegiate level, with 16 of the 17 coming in one season. There was a feeling pre-draft that his one season as a starter was a concern if drafted high.
In the end, he was drafted highly and with the injury concerns, these questions are rising again.
Is Purdy More Of A Shanahan Player?
This has resulted in what looks to be a quarterback battle.
The quality of Lance compared to Purdy has also been brought into question, with Bill Simmons giving his thoughts. He said: “What do they do with Trey Lance? They traded all these picks to get Trey Lance, they end up getting a quarterback in the last pick of the draft, who is clearly better.
"So now what do you do? Is Trey Lance available? Would you trade for Trey Lance? He's coming for an injury... They have two quarterbacks who could probably start for other teams. But unless Purdy completely self-destructs, he's going to be that guy.
“12 teams need a quarterback. They'll probably keep him. Purdy was 18-30, 332 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. This continues to be the most incredible story.
"There's not a lot of angles other than to say this is incredible, but it also makes you think how stupid drafting is."
In his one full season as a starter, Lance ran for over 1,000 yards, but is he a Shanahan quarterback? Purdy fits the description, sharing similar characteristics to Ryan and Garoppolo, whereas Lance is a completely different quarterback.
Shanahan has always preferred pocket passing quarterbacks, from Jimmy Garoppolo to Matt Ryan, who he had when he was the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator. He also tried to sign Kirk Cousins in the early stages of his 49ers tenure.
This is why Lance will hope that Purdy does not come back from his injury as quick as expected. If Lance starts week one and has a great game, with the draft capital they gave up, the front office and Shanahan will feel obliged to play him, despite what Purdy did last season.
If Lance carries this on, then there is a chance he will remain the starter and they will look to trade Purdy whilst he still has trade value. However, if Lance gets injured again or struggles and Purdy comes in and excels, then Shanahan may pull the plug and give him the full time starting role. After all, we have seen this with the New England Patriots when they gave Brady the starting role despite Drew Bledsoe coming back from injury. We also saw Kirk Cousins benefit from a similar situation in Washington despite being drafted below teammate Robert Griffin.
This is not to say Lance doesn't start again in the NFL, but it would most likely be for someone else. The 49ers will most likely trade him away. Due to his draft position, this will still attract suitors.
This is why the 2023 season is so crucial for Lance. One way or the other, we should get an answer as to what the future holds in San Francisco for the young QB.
References:
49ers vs. Bears - NFL Box Score - 11 September 2022 | ESPN
Trey Lance Game by Game Stats and Performance | ESPN
Trey Lance College Stats, School, Draft, Gamelog, Splits | College Football at Sports-Reference.com