The Miami Dolphins have a Tua problem

The Miami Dolphins got back to losing ways on Sunday, defeated 20-12 on the road to the Houston Texans as their playoff hopes were all but over.

Losses for the Los Angeles Chargers and Indianapolis Colts gives some hope, but they would both need to lose two of their final three games for the Dolphins to even have a chance of reaching the playoffs. And this is even to say that the Dolphins will even win out this season.

This Dolphins team will wonder what if, after a game that gifted them multiple chances to win could have seen them just one defeat behind the seventh seed Chargers.

It was a difficult day for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who had four turnovers in the defeat at NRG Stadium. It was another important game against a team with a winning record on the road that not only have the Dolphins lost, but Tua has struggled in. This has become a worrying trend during his five-year NFL career so far.

The Miami Dolphins have a Tua problem.

Forget Drew Brees comparisons, Tua is Kirk Cousins

During the draft process and even to this day, many are quick to compare Tua to former Chargers and New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who ironically almost joined the team in 2006 before his move to Louisiana.

This is due to his size, accuracy and ability to get the ball out quickly. However, Brees was able to perform in the biggest moments, notably their Super Bowl win over Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts. Tua cannot get over the hump in the biggest moments, just like Kirk Cousins who has a notoriously bad record in primetime games.

Cousins, like Tua, has the stats. Both of them have let the league in a passing category, Cousins the 2015 passing completions leader and Tua the 2023 passing yards leader. However, both were one and done in the postseason, losing in the Wildcard Round.

The offensive line has struggled to protect him, granted, but Burrow made the Super Bowl despite being the most sacked quarterback both in the regular season and the postseason in their 2021 campaign. He did this with receivers such as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who are of similar ability to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

In his rookie season, the Dolphins played the Buffalo Bills in the final week and had the chance to secure a postseason berth. Tua threw for one touchdown and three picks, However, these picks were when the deficit was already high so you can let him off for these, especially in a rookie year.

A year later and the Dolphins also had a must win against the Tennessee Titans in their penultimate game of the season. Miami lost 34-3 and Tua failed to throw for a touchdown.

2022 cannot be blamed on Tua, given his injury problems and the excellent performances against the Baltimore Ravens and Bills in Weeks Two and Three. He had his best career season in 2023, but they lost three of their final five games, including an almighty collapse against the Titans in Week 14, as the team allowed a 14-point lead with three minutes left slip away.

2024 has seen some time off the field due to another concussion, but when he has played, he has only beaten one team with a winning record in the Los Angeles Rams. He struggled massively in Week Two against the Bills prior to his concussion and struggled on Thanksgiving against the Green Bay Packers and on Sunday against Houston.

This worrying trend does not seem to be going away.

The Dolphins are trapped

A six-to-eight-win season is often seen as the worst total to have. Nine times out of ten, you do not make the playoffs. You also will not be having a high draft pick. This is the problem the Dolphins have at the moment. Tua is not a bad quarterback, but he has not got the credentials to guide this team to Super Bowl glory.

If he had started all season, then the team would have probably made the playoffs, or at least be in a better position to make it in. With his new contract signed in the offseason, the team is unlikely to get rid of him, as he isn’t bad enough for this to happen.

However, this is where the issue lies. For a team that has gone all in and acquired the likes of Hill, Jalen Ramsey and Bradley Chubb, they are here to win now. They are in no position to rebuild.

You cannot help thinking how far this team could go had they tanked correctly and drafted Joe Burrow first overall in 2020, someone who made the Super Bowl despite being the most sacked quarterback in both the regular season and postseason.

Of course, time could change and Tua could prove the doubters wrong. After all, Eli Manning was once considered a bust and Peyton Manning was seen as someone who “could not win the big one”. He managed to win the big one in college when he helped Alabama win a National Championship. He needs to translate this to the NFL, otherwise the Dolphins could be stuck in a playoff drought rut for even longer.

Andy Davies