What next for Juju?
When he wasn’t drawing incredibly controversial defensive penalties in the waning moments of Super Bowl LVII, JuJu-Smith Schuster was busy resurrecting his career with one of the premier teams in the NFL, led by one of its most successful head coaches and one of its most elite quarterbacks.
Smith-Schuster burst onto the scene after being drafted late in the second round of the 2017 NFL Draft out of USC by the Pittsburgh Steelers. It took a few weeks for him to find the starting lineup as a rookie, but once he did be quickly became a big-play target of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, averaging 11.6 yards per target, 15.8 yards per reception, and leading the league with a 97-yard touchdown catch.
In 2018, Smith-Schuster brought his game to another level. With Antonio Brown having departed, Smith-Schuster quickly became Big Ben’s go-to guy, finishing with 166 targets, good for fourth in the league, tied for sixth in receptions with 111, and fifth in receiving yards with 1426. He added another 97-yard touchdown to his ledger that year, and was in the discussion with the top receivers in the NFL.
But things unravelled quickly in 2019. Roethlisberger suffered an elbow injury in week 2, requiring surgery and ending his season. As is typical when a team loses a franchise quarterback, the entire offense suffered, and Smith-Schuster was no exception. Starting only 12 games while battling injury issues of his own, Smith-Schuster plummeted to just 42 receptions, and while Roethlisberger returned in 2020, Smith-Schuster simply was not the player he was those first two seasons. He reeled in 97 receptions in 2020, but averaged a paltry 8.6 yards per catch, the
third lowest in the league among qualified receivers. He would dislocate his shoulder in week 5 the following season, and though he was ultimately able to return for the playoffs, he hit the free agent market in 2022 with little fanfare, declining statistics, injury concerns, and four years removed from his breakout 2018 campaign.
Drawing little interest in free agency, Smith-Schuster ultimately signed a 1-year, $3.7 million ‘prove it’ deal with the Kansas City Chiefs. The contract was rich with incentive bonuses, most of which Smith-Schuster achieved during a rebound season in which he hauled in 78 receptions for 933 yards with the best catch percentage (77.2%) of his career.
He doesn’t display the burst he once did, has scored only three touchdowns since 2020, and has fumbled eight times in his career, a very high number even for a volume receiver. But he showed that when in the right system, he’s still a more-than-viable NFL receiver that could be counted on in big moments, as he put up some of his most impactful games of the season against some of the top defenses in the league, and played a key role in the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory.
Now he enters free agency once again, with a rebound season under his belt and a Super Bowl ring on his finger. Spotrac.com projects Smith-Schuster’s next contract to be in the $14.6 million AAV range. This writer happens to feel that number is a little high, but the NFL is a passing league, and contracts that were once given to elite running backs are now being given to above-average wide receivers.
Smith-Schuster could fit just about any system, as his yards-per-reception over the past four years place him firmly in the ‘possession receiver’ category. That isn’t to diminish his skill set in any way. Possession receivers in a league as pass-heavy as the NFL are incredibly valuable and can help their offenses move the sticks on 3rd and 4th down. Every team needs one, so let’s discuss a few possible landing spots for JuJu.
Few teams had a more disastrous 2022 season than Houston. The 3-13-1 record speaks for itself, but digging even a layer or two deeper reveals just how inept this team was at moving the ball. They were 25th in passing at under 200 yards per game, despite playing from behind in nearly every game. They ranked 31st in rushing at less than 87 yards per game, averaging an embarrassing 3.7 yards per attempt. Their passer rating was also 31st, ahead of only the New York Jets, and they were 30th in turnovers. The team hired San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans to right the ship, their fourth head coach in four years. Sought after as Ryans was, one would assume he will be given at least a few years to clean up this mess, and it starts with revamping a roster devoid of really any high-end talent. Brandin Cooks led the team in receiving last year with a pedestrian 699 yards. He’s been a quality receiver for many years, and though he recently signed a 2-year extension, he’s been traded multiple times and turns 30 in September. Chris Moore also turns 30 this year and has never topped 50 receptions in a season. Nico Collins has potential and prototypical size, but he isn’t quite there yet. Houston is also in the market for help at quarterback. A trusty receiver like Smith-Schuster could help that process, and at only 26 years old, he could do it for several years. With over $35 million in available cap space, Houston would do well to look in JuJu’s direction.
The Raiders are a perplexing team. They made the huge move last year to sign Davante Adams away from the Green Bay Packers and reunite him with his old college buddy, quarterback Derek Carr, and then proceeded to run Carr clear out of town. They ran the daylight out of Josh Jacobs just in time for him to hit free agency. Tight end Darren Waller has regressed beyond recognition, and they have but one wide receiver that caught a pass in 2022 that won’t be 30 or older in 2023 under contract. That receiver is Hunter Renfrow, who missed 7 games last season with concussions and an abdominal strain. The Raiders have over $45 million in available cap room for 2023, and while a good part of that could go to a quarterback in free agency, signing Smith-Schuster to solidify their receiving corps could make this a more attractive destination.
The Colts bet big on veteran quarterback Matt Ryan having one good year left in the tank. It was a bet they undeniably lost, as Ryan looked twice his age, star running back Jonathan Taylor missed six games after leading the NFL in rushing in 2021, and top receiver Michael Pittman, Jr. regressed after a stellar sophomore season. Second-year receiver Alec Pierce is a nice player and has upside, but this team needs a veteran in the wide receiver room, and Smith-Schuster could be just the man for the job. The Colts hired Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as their new head coach and will be looking to rebuild their passing game. The Colts have some, albeit not much, wiggle room with the salary cap in 2023, with just under $4 million available as of now, but they could maneuver that number higher. With Parris Campbell vacating the number 2 receiver spot, it leaves an opening that Smith-Schuster could be a perfect fit for.
The Patriots spent several seasons waiting for Jakobi Meyers to figure things out in the NFL, and he did just that in 2022, just in time to hit free agency. New England has struggled at the wide receiver position for years through a combination of draft picks that didn’t materialize and free agent signings that didn’t work out. DeVante Parker, the Patriots latest installment of ‘free agent signings that didn’t work out,’ is 30 and struggled with health and productivity in 2022. The same could be said for Nelson Agholor, who stayed healthy but caught only 31 passes in 16 games. Kendrick Bourne is no more than a number three or four receiver, and if Meyers departs in free agency, it leaves a sizable void near the top of the Patriots’ wide receiver depth chart. New England may or may not have a quarterback in Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, but no matter who is under center, they need a better selection of receivers to throw the ball to. With almost $30 million in cap space for 2023, the Patriots will almost certainly tap into the free agent market, and Smith-Schuster would make a lot of sense.
Atlanta’s 2022 season unraveled before it ever really got started. They compensated for the departure of Matt Ryan by signing Marcus Mariota to a 2-year contract, a contract they will almost certainly terminate this offseason to save themselves around $12 million in cap space. After Mariota played his way to the bench, rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder showed enough promise that the Falcons are likely to move forward with him as their starter. The unfortunate situation surrounding Calvin Ridley left the Falcons without their star receiver for the entirety of 2022, and he now finds himself in Jacksonville. The Falcons drafted Drake London with the 8th overall pick in 2022, and he was fantastic when his quarterback play wasn’t awful and looks like an absolute stud going forward. The experiment of running back/kick returner/wide receiver/flanker/X/Z/gadget man Cordarrelle Patterson seems to have mercifully run its course, as rookie running back Tyler Allgeier was a monster in the second half of the season, finishing with over 1000 yards averaging almost five yards per carry. The disaster that was 2022 Kyle Pitts is as inexplicable as it is unrepeatable, and assuming he returns to his rookie season form, this young offense has all kinds of potential going forward. What it lacks is a dependable veteran presence, and Smith-Schuster, fresh off a Super Bowl victory, could be just the man for that job. Atlanta is flush with cap space, ranking second in the league with almost $50 million available, and they’d be wise to spend a portion of that on a veteran wideout like JuJu.