"We will not trade Jonathan Taylor. That is a certainty. Not now or not in October."

This was Jim Irsay’s response, on the 29th of July, to news that star running back Jonathan Taylor had requested a trade away from the Indianapolis Colts. Less than a month later and Taylor has been granted permission to seek the trade he desires.

It has been a tumultuous offseason in Indianapolis. Taylor’s trade request back in July came after an hourlong meeting with Irsay at the Colts’ training field in the owner’s luxury bus. Taylor is entering the fourth year of his rookie contract this season, where he is due to earn $4.304 million, but as the team’s star player on offense, he believes it is time he got paid. Irsay disagrees and had expected Taylor to play the upcoming season on his current contract. The situation has been exacerbated by the league-wide situation concerning running back pay that has come to a head over the summer. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard all failed to agree to long-term contracts, and this led to a running back zoom call where the top players at the position discussed what they could do about their depressed market. Jonathan Taylor reacted to this situation by saying, “You see why guys request trades”. Needless to say, Jim Irsay had a slightly different opinion, saying, “We have negotiated a CBA, that took years of effort and hard work and compromise in good faith by both sides...to say now that a specific player category wants another negotiation after the fact, is inappropriate.”

After all this, we have reached a point where the Colts have given Taylor permission to seek a trade. Things are still far from straight forward though. While Irsay does not value Jonathan Taylor enough to pay him a lucrative new contract, he values him highly enough that he wants a first-round pick for him, or a package of picks that equates to as much. This price, coupled with the contract that Taylor himself will be expecting, may make suitors for the former Wisconsin running back scarce. All it takes is one team to be willing to pay for him though. So, let’s have a look at who those teams could be.

The Dolphins already have Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson and rookie De’Von Achane on the roster, yet reports suggest the Dolphins will at least explore the possibility of a trade for Jonathan Taylor. While they are blessed with depth at the position, it is obvious that the 2021 rushing leader would be a massive upgrade for them. Taylor isn’t the first star-name running back they have been linked with this offseason either. Miami were in the hunt for Dalvin Cook before he moved to the Jets but ultimately did not want to pay him the amount he was seeking. So, will they be willing to pay Taylor?

The difference with Taylor is that he is only 24 years old, clearly in the prime of his career, and, based on his 2021 showing, has the ability to be one of the very best running backs in the league. If Miami were to spend big on any running back, then Taylor would be one of the few they would. The question though is, will they? The Dolphins clearly aren’t afraid to make big moves. Last offseason, they acquired Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs for five draft picks, including a first, and signed him to a lucrative long-term contract. They have also recently traded for Bradley Chubb, Jeff Wilson and this offseason, Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphins have built a roster to challenge in a very competitive AFC and so could be open to adding another big piece to help them really push for that Lombardi trophy.

Ultimately though, I think he might be too expensive for Miami. They weren’t willing to pay Dalvin Cook a much more modest amount on a one-year deal and Taylor will be looking for a long-term deal that makes him one of the best paid backs in the league. It just doesn’t make sense for this team to pay so much and give up so much draft capital on a position that isn’t a glaring need for them. They will have talks to explore the possible asking price, but I will be surprised if they paid anywhere near what Taylor and Irsay are currently asking for.

Now, the Bears are a team that could afford to pay what Taylor and Irsay are currently asking for. They have four picks in the first three rounds next year, currently have over $16 million in cap space and are projected to have around $85 million in cap space in 2024. They are also a team that could use an elite running back.

While Khali Herbert, D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson make a capable backfield for the Bears, there is no question that Jonathan Taylor would massively upgrade this unit. They are a team that favours the run too, with quarterback Justin Fields currently known for his ability with his legs rather than for his ability with his arm. Pairing Taylor with this young quarterback should take some of the pressure off Fields and therefore help him develop his game as a passer. The Bears’ quarterback has been very vocal this offseason about his expectation of being a much more prolific passer and if Taylor were added to this team, it would give opposing defences another major threat to worry about, thus making life easier for Fields. The Bears are a team that have the money and resources to build a winning team around their promising young quarterback. They should make Jonathan Taylor part of that team.

Jonathan Taylor’s head coach last year, Frank Reich has moved to Carolina. Could Taylor now follow him? Reich was the head coach in Indianapolis when the Colts drafted Taylor and the pair of them had a good relationship, with Reich overseeing Taylor’s monster 2021 season. The Panthers definitely need some weapons on offense. While they have signed Miles Sanders at running back this offseason, he is not of the quality of Jonathan Taylor and there are question marks over whether he is good enough to be a true lead back in the NFL. Pairing Taylor with Sanders though, would give the Panthers a very exciting backfield and a dynamism that is missing from their offense. The offense is currently set up to go through rookie quarterback Bryce Young, and while the 2023 first overall pick is a great prospect, it is a lot to ask of him to come in and carry this offense from week one. His receiving team of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and rookie Jonathan Mingo is not exactly one that is going to massively help him succeed right away so bringing in a playmaker of Taylor’s ability to take the pressure off the rookie makes a lot of sense.

The only stumbling block though is the Panthers’ current draft capital. Their 2024 first-round and 2025 second-round picks went to the Bears so they could move up and take Bryce Young first overall. Whether they would be willing, or even able, to give up another haul of draft picks remains to be seen but if they could strike an acceptable deal with the Colts then getting Taylor would be a very good move for them.

Another team with a young and inexperienced quarterback, who could also do with some extra help in their running game, is the Washington Commanders. Sam Howell has just the one career start, in the week 18 game against the Cowboys, and so he is a big unknown going into he 2023 season as the team’s starter. It is unlikely that Washington will be looking to run their offense entirely through him though as head coach Ron Rivera does tend to favour a run-heavy playbook.

At the moment, Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are the lead backs on the Commanders’ roster and while they are a decent combination, neither is elite or near the class of Jonathan Taylor. Taylor would bring some much-needed explosiveness to the team and would give new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy an exciting new weapon to use as he builds the offense he wants. The Commanders currently have all their draft picks for 2024 and are projected to have $80 million in cap space in 2024, so they are one of the teams best equipped to afford Taylor. With Josh Harris coming in as team owner, a move for Taylor would also be a good way to get the fanbase excited about the new regime.

The Minnesota Vikings cut Dalvin Cook this offseason as part of a cost-cutting exercise and vowed to go forward with 2022 back-up Alexander Mattison as the starter this season. So, considering they did not want to pay Cook, would they want to pay Jonathan Taylor? For starters, the two players are at different points of their career. While Cook is arguably past his peak, Taylor is right in his prime and, at 24 years of age, should have a few more years at the very top ahead of him.

The Vikings were willing to pay a 25-year-old Dalvin Cook in 2020 and likely only cut him this year due to the fact the cap hit on his contract was increasing while the returns from him on the pitch were diminishing. This wouldn’t be the case with Taylor. Plus, despite them proclaiming their confidence in Alexander Mattison, he clearly is a weak point in this offense and a downgrade on Cook, let alone on Taylor. The Vikings ended up with 13 wins last season, before losing to the Giants in the playoffs, and they still see themselves as contenders this year. Bringing in Taylor to join Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson would give them a fearful offense indeed and could put them into a position to properly contend. If they are serious about making a push for the Super Bowl this season, then bringing in a player like Taylor is something they should be considering.

The team who famously say “f*** them picks” have draft picks again in 2024. So, it would be totally like the Rams to trade away those picks before they get a chance to use them. The Rams are currently in a remodel, not a rebuild, spending the offseason jettisoning high earners such as Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner, Leonard Floyd and Allen Robinson while keeping hold of their pillars, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. These moves weren’t made with 2023 in mind, the 2023 cap hit from some of these players was minimal, but with aims to clear cap space for 2024.

The Rams want to remain as competitive as they can this year but then go back to aggressively building next offseason. That’s not to say they would turn down a good opportunity if it arose this year. They were after Christian McCaffrey last season, before he joined the 49ers, so they could be interested in this elite running back that has just become available. The Rams’ running game was not good last season and their running back room is currently far from settled. Cam Akers is projected to be the starter for the upcoming season, but it was only ten months ago that the Rams were seeking a team to trade Akers to. Even without this, it is very clear that Taylor is in a different class to Akers and so a move for him would be worthwhile for the Rams. Whether they do actually make a move for him, we’ll have to wait and see, but I can almost guarantee that Les Snead and Sean McVay will at least have a conversation about it.

Daniel Rowe

Where next for Jonathan Taylor?

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