Wildcard Weekend Betting Cheatsheet
The curtains have come down on the 2022 NFL Regular Season and now, we're at the business end of things, it's The Playoffs baby!
Hopefully you've had yourself a profitable season of betting and have some house money to spend this Wildcard Weekend. In my experience, betting on playoff games is a different beast compared to the regular season. Through research, growing pains and some narrowly lost bets , I've been able to accumulate some useful tricks to help us when handicapping playoff fixtures. So without further ado, let's talk some situational trends.
Since 2012, if you have bet Under the Total on all Wildcard games, you would have cashed your ticket 65,6% of the time , that's 11 Overs - 21 Unders in 32 games. (This is a Wildcard Weekend specific trend)
Teams coming off a win vs Teams coming off a loss in the final regular season game have seen a growing trend as well . Teams coming off a win (Jaguars, Vikings and Bengals) have gone 31-17 in the last 48 situations, that's a 64,6% hit rate . (This is another Wildcard Weekend specific trend)
Since 2010, NFL double digit favourites have gone 11-0 (Buffalo Bills and 49ers). Furthermore in matches where there is a double digit favourite, the total has gone Over (13-7) in the last 20 games that's a 65% hit rate.
As a rule of thumb in the playoffs, if you pick the winner , you also cover the spread over 83% of the time. In the Wildcard Round specifically, the winning percentage increases to around 90%. So it's no surprise that historically speaking, the spread has usually only mattered in 1 out of 6 games in the first round.
Home teams who win playoff games have covered the spread (68-19) , that's 78,2% of the time. When the away teams have won they have gone 73-3-2 (93,6%). Away teams are underdogs over 80% of the time so usually, when the underdog wins, they cover the spread, hence the high number. If you lean towards the underdog, bet the 1x2 Market for greater returns.
When the Home team wins, the total leans over 58,4% of the time. When the away team wins, the total goes under 66,4% of the time.
So in light of these trends and the situations we have on the wildcard slate, here are some of my favourite picks;
Bills -13,5 @10/11
Bills/Dolphins Over 43,5 @10/11
49ers -9,5 @10/11
49ers/Seahawks Over 42 @17/20
Jaguars to win @23/20