AFC Championship Preview: Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Cincinnati Bengals made a difficult road game in Buffalo look very easy as they won 27-10 and will now return to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Title game for the second season in a row.
The Bengals handled the emotion of their divisional matchup much better than the Bills. Joe Burrow was his typical cool and calm self, with the quarterback completing 23/36 passes for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Bills, in particular Stefon Diggs, cut frustrated figures especially in the second half as the game continued to get away from them. Unfortunately for Buffalo the Bengals just carved up their defence and they won the battle in the trenches throughout the entire game.
The Bills will look to regroup in the 2023 season after another disappointing postseason collapse. Josh Allen and this Bills team are starting to resemble Aaron Rodgers’ time with Green Bay Packers as the media love this team, most pundits pick them to win it all but then once the playoffs come round, despite a great regular season and all the hype, something just falls short so we’ll see how they respond.
As for Cincinnati, the Bengals defeated Kansas City last year 27-24 in overtime in that AFC Championship game mentioned at the beginning and will be hoping to do so again to get back to the Super Bowl. If they do so, then they’ll look to become only the 4th team in NFL history to lift the Lombardi Trophy after losing the previous year, following in the footsteps of the 1971 Dallas Cowboys, 1972 Miami Dolphins, and 2018 New England Patriots.
Standing in their way is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes himself put in a gutsy performance after returning to the field following a high ankle sprain to help his team win 27-20 versus Jacksonville in their divisional round matchup.
The talking point all week will be about Mahomes health and his mobility in this game but I think it’s safe to assume that he will definitely be suiting up in Kansas City’s 5th straight AFC title game.
5 straight conference championships is an impressive achievement but for a franchise that was being crowned as the next dynasty before it even happened, they need to get another Super Bowl title in the books.
Previous results versus the Bengals would suggest they could fall short once again in their pursuit of this goal as Joe Burrow has out-duelled Mahomes to take his record versus the Chiefs to 3-0 since coming into the league.
For KC to have a chance in this they’ll need to get to Burrow, over the last two matchups Burrow has only been sacked once in each game. Unfortunately for KC, the Bengals offensive-line continues to look strong despite losing multiple starters in recent weeks. You could argue that new-look offensive line turned in arguably its best effort of the season on Sunday.
By doing so it’s allowing Burrow to play his usually surgical game from a well-protected pocket and ‘Joe Brrr’ himself is releasing the ball even faster to receivers Ja’maar Chase, he had 61 receiving yards on 5 catches and a touchdowns, and the likes of Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin which is making this Bengals offense even harder to stop.
When you also factor in tight end Hayden Hurst, he had 59 receiving yards from 5 catches and one touchdown in the win over Buffalo, along with running back Joe Mixon, 105 yards from 20 carries and a touchdown, as well as Samaje Perine who can get it done on the ground and in the passing game it just shows how strong this Bengals offense is.
The above as well as the success that Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo had last year versus Mahomes will be talked about all week. He flustered the Chiefs QB by moving to 3 man front on the defence in the second half so by having an extra man drop back into coverage it just gave Mahomes more to think about meaning less productive 2nd downs and then on 3rd down it made it harder for them to convert.
Mahomes will need his running backs to produce and surely head coach Andy Reid will prioritise their utilisation as in the last three games versus Cincinnati, running backs have seen 17 or more carries and averaged 5.3 yards per carry whilst gaining over 100 yards in all 3 losses.
Doing this will avoid the third and long problem that I mentioned and allow the Chiefs offense to stay in rhythm. I think that if Isaiah Pacheco has a big game then the Chiefs have a good chance of winning this matchup. Pacheco had 95 yards on 12 carries versus Jacksonville with an incredible 7.9 per carry average.
His running style his bullish and he doesn’t let up on any play. McKinnon was quiet last week on the ground and more surprisingly in the passing game as well so it will potentially fall on the rookie running backs shoulders once again.
Pacheco has become a more prominent part of the offense throughout this season and his story reminds me of when the Patriots drafted Sony Michel heading into the 2018 Season in which they went on to win the Super Bowl.
Following the high scoring loss to the Eagles in the 2017 edition of the Super Bowl, Tom Brady’s speediest weapon Brandin Cooks went to the Rams and the Patriots number one offense changed identity in a somewhat similar fashion or at least comparable to how Andy Reid’s offense has changed since Tyreek Hill went to the Dolphins before the start of this season.
Brady relied on Rob Gronkowski in 2018 just as Mahomes has relied on Travis Kielce for the Chiefs this season. He had 98 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 catches last weekend against the Jags and was pretty much unstoppable.
Brady still had his other main go to target Julian Edelman, as well as Chris Hogan remaining from the prolific offense of 2017, however Danny Amendola moved on plus Edelman and Gronk didn’t play every game so Brady was utilising the likes of Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Josh Gordon as well as running back James White who has a key player in the passing game in particularly that season.
The reason I mention this is because Mahomes has had to build up rapport with various new weapons. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling only signed this season, rookie wideout Skyy Moore was part of their 2022 draft class and the talented Kadarius Toney only joined the team from via trade Giants in October.
The offense has seen a radical change in personnel but Mahomes has continued to be magnificent, just as Brady was in his new look offense, and his play at quarterback has seen the Chiefs go from 3rd in total yardage per game last year to 1st this year. The passing numbers are up from 4791 yards and 480 points last season to 496 points and 5062 passing yards respectively.
Going back to original point of the comparison which is Isaiah Pacheco, now the Chiefs don’t run the ball as much as New England did however his impact has been key and noticeable.
Pacheco has started 11/18 games this season, he has 830 yards rushing 5 to touchdowns and 4.9 yards per carry. When you compare that to Sony Michel in the Patriots offense as a rookie, he started 8/ 13 games, has 931 yards rushing yards with 4.4 yards per carry and 6 touchdowns.
In the playoffs Michel racked up 336 yards in 3 games and 6 touchdowns for the Patriots as they went on to defeat the Rams 13-3, if Pacheco continues on pace from his performance versus Jacksonville then he will have 285 rushing yards. Those numbers mentioned for Pacheco would be on 36 carries alone whereas Michel had 71 attempts across New England’s 3 playoff games.
I’m not saying the Chiefs should force pounding the rock as we know the heartbeat of this team is Mahomes throwing the ball and utilising their strengths of such a dynamic offense but considering his injury versus the Jags and previous success which they’ve had versus Cincinnati, KC running backs in the last three games vs this Sunday’s opponents have averaged least 5.3 yards per carry and seen them have 17 or more carries.
Bengal’s Head Coach Zac Taylor’s can sleep well knowing that his team always turn up when the lights are brightest, Burrow and Chase in particular, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they walked out with a road win to book their trip to Arizona, however I think if the Chiefs can establish the run to keep their offense in rhythm then they can finally get one over on this Bengals team meaning that Andy Reid’s team will their book their 3rd Super Bowl appearance in 4 seasons.
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals 27-30 Kansas City Chiefs
