Picking the result of one game in the NFL is difficult. Attempting to pick the results of all 272 games before the season has even started is an exercise in futility. Yet, that is exactly what I have done. “Why?”, I hear you ask. Partly because I really miss football and partly because I decided that this would be the best way to come up with my win-loss projections for each team. The idea is that such a method will inherently take into account strength of schedule, as well as reducing the effect of pre-season optimism. The beautiful thing about this moment, before the season starts, is that hope is abundant and dreams are yet to be quashed. The harshness of reality is that a tough season awaits many teams and in five months’ time many will have a losing record etched beside their name. By predicting the result of every game, I hope to come up with records that accurately convey how I feel about each of the 32 teams going onto this new season.

So, let’s have a look at the AFC.

AFC East

The Bills remain the team to beat in the AFC East after getting 13 regular season wins last year, before their disappointing loss to the Bengals in the playoffs. After that playoff game, it’s very easy to forget just how good they were in the regular season, and they are still in a position this year to make a run all the way to the Super Bowl. Things have got a lot tougher for them though. The improvement of the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets make this a much tougher division to win and with the Chiefs and Bengals also on their schedule, I have their win total being slightly down on last year’s.

They still have one of the best rosters in the league though. On offense, Josh Allen is still the best quarterback in the AFC East, despite the arrival of a certain former MVP, and in Stefon Diggs, Allen has one of the best receivers in the league to target. There was a feeling that they needed to add one more weapon in the offseason to help make them that final step, but, in the end, no big-name signing was made. Instead, the Bills will be relying on rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid to give them something extra in a slot receiver role. On the defensive side of the ball, they are still blessed with a plethora of star names and will again be one of the best defenses in the league, but they do need to find a replacement for Tremaine Edmunds at middle linebacker.

It will be a lot closer in the AFC East this year, but I still have the Bills coming out on top of the pile.

The Dolphins have the potential be really good this year. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at receiver, the Dolphins have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and in head coach Mike McDaniel, they have the offensive mind to get the best out of them. A lot though depends on the fitness of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Last season, multiple concussions led to Tua missing five games, including the playoff loss to the Bills. A lot of the offseason focus has been on these five missed games, but I prefer to look at the games he actually played. In his 13 games, he threw for 3548 yards, 25 touchdowns and had a passer rating of 105.5. If he had managed to stay fit all season, the Dolphins would have had a significantly better record than 9-8 and would have arguably beaten the Bills in the playoffs. Tua has been studying judo in the offseason to help him learn how to fall better and if he can stay fit, there is no doubt the Dolphins will be a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. Even if he does miss a couple of games again, the overlooked signing of Mike White as backup quarterback should mean they will be in a better position to remain competitive in his absence.

The Dolphin’s defense should be good too. They have talent on the edge in Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb and a top secondary containing Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland. The knee injury suffered by Jalen Ramsey, that could keep him out until December, is a huge blow but the signing of Eli Apple to cover this makes a lot of sense. And then there is the appointment of their new defensive coordinator, a certain Vic Fangio.

I have the Dolphins making the playoffs in 2023 and I think they even have the potential to go all the way to Super Bowl LVIII.

There isn’t a more hyped team in the offseason than the New York Jets. Signing four-time season MVP Aaron Rodgers to a team boasting the offensive and defensive rookies of the year will do that. The Jets finished last season with a disappointing 7-10 record, despite the success of their rookie class, and the main reason for this was the quality of their quarterback play. There was a strong feeling that this roster was just a quarterback away from success and now, with the arrival of one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, some are tipping the Jets to go all the way this year.

There is talent throughout this roster. Garrett Wilson showed in his rookie season that he has the ability to be one of the top receivers in the league and in running back Breece Hall, they have a player who may very well have taken the offensive rookie of the year title away from Wilson, had he not suffered his season ending injury. Four-time Pro Bowler Dalvin Cook has been added to the running back room to help Hall as he recovers from that injury, and Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman add depth to the receiver room. The Jets defense, led by defensive rookie of the year Sauce Gardner, is the team’ strength though, finishing last season 4th in points allowed.

There is no doubt that the Jets will be better this season, but they are far from the super team that some caught up in the off-season hype would have you believe. Rodgers will be a huge upgrade at quarterback but at 39 years of age, he is not in the prime of his career anymore. A huge concern is the condition of the Jets’ offensive line and whether they will be up to the job of protecting their veteran quarterback. Plus, with the added focus on this team, how will they cope if things start to go slightly wrong? The Jets play the Bills, Cowboys, Chiefs and Eagles in their first six games and so could realistically enter week seven with a losing record. Will this team be able to recover from a losing start or will the outside noise help to derail their season?

I have the Jets contesting for a wildcard play-off place this season and realistically, if they make the playoffs, that would be a good season for them.

It’s no secret that the New England Patriots are nowhere near the team they once were. Six Super Bowl wins since the turn of the century are just a memory now, with last season’s 8-9 losing record more representative of what the New England Patriots currently are. Tom Brady has been replaced at quarterback by Mac Jones, who is entering his third year in the NFL and is yet to completely convince as a long-term starting quarterback. With Juju Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker at receiver, I’m not expecting much from the Patriots’ passing game but their running back tandem of Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott is highly promising and suggests that a ground game could be the focus for New England this year. On defense, I always expect a Bill Belichick team to be competitive and in

Matthew Judon and Josh Uche they have some serious talent at linebacker. Plus, I am a big fan of their first-round pick, cornerback Christian Gonzalez.

Belichick’s coaching will undoubtedly lead to them achieving some wins I have not predicted them to get, but there is no doubt that the New England Patriots are the weakest team in a stacked AFC East this year. Could this possibly be Belichick’s final season in New England?

AFC North

Beaten in the Super Bowl two seasons ago by the Rams and beaten in the AFC Championship last season by the Chiefs, the Bengals have been consistently one of the best teams in the league over recent years. I have no reason to doubt that this success will continue. Joseph Lee Burrow is a superstar in the NFL and has transformed this team since taking over at quarterback. The talent he has to work with on the offense is outstanding too. The pairing of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is a contender for the best receiver combination in the NFL and Joe Mixon is an important weapon at running back. The move to sign Orlando Brown in the offseason was a tremendous one for this team and is the sort of move that will help them make the step from nearly men to Super Bowl champions. There is talent of the defensive side of the ball too. Trey Hendrickson has been an absolute beast since joining the Bengals, gaining 22 sacks over 2 seasons, and DJ Reader and Sam Hubbard give the Bengals a top defensive line. Under the instruction of DC Lou Anarumo, this Bengals defense has proved it can deal with the very best offenses in the league, and with quarterbacks like Josh Allen and a certain Patrick Mahomes on their schedule this season, they will have to be at their best again this year.

There are currently concerns over the fitness of Joe Burrow though, after he limped off during preseason training with a calf injury. He may be back for week one but, regardless, the backups behind him are a concern. Jake Browning and Trevor Siemian are currently on the roster and there is an argument for the Bengals to go out and get a veteran quarterback, such as Carson Wentz and Nick Foles, to cover any potential Burrow absence. Even missing Burrow for a couple of games could prove costly as the AFC North is one of the most competitive divisions this season.

Despite this, I see the Bengals having a very good 2023 season. They are my favourites to go all the way and lift the Super Bowl.

The biggest signing of the Ravens’ offseason was, without a doubt, Lamar Jackson. With the future of the 2019 league MVP settled, the Ravens were able to focus on improving the roster to help the former Louisville quarterback. The receiving corps of Rashod Bateman, OBJ, and rookie Zay ‘Joystick’ Flowers, not to mention tight end Mark Andrews, gives Jackson the best selection of weapons he has had since arriving in Baltimore. Add to this a fully fit JK Dobbins to complement Jackson’s rushing ability and the Baltimore Ravens could have an offense to fear in 2023. Their defense last season was third in terms of points allowed and I expect them to still be dominant on this side of the ball this season, despite the loss of Calais Campbell.

Possibly the biggest change to the Ravens over the offseason was the departure of Greg Roman as offensive coordinator and the arrival of Todd Monken. Since Lamar Jackson arrived in Baltimore, Roman orchestrated an offense suited to Jackson’s unique skillset and helped him to the 2019 MVP but in recent seasons, partly due to Jackson’s injury issues, this offense has stalled. Whether Monken can successfully transform the Ravens offense to a more pass friendly one to make the use of Jackson’s new weapons will go a long way to determining the success of this team in 2023.

I can see the Ravens making the playoffs in 2023 and possibly upsetting a team or two when they get there. They will be an interesting team to follow in 2023.

The Cleveland Browns are a very difficult team to assess for 2023. On one hand they have a three-time Pro Bowl quarterback, one of the very best running backs in the league, a solid receiving corps, and a promising young tight end. On the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the very best defensive ends in the league and have just signed a three-time Pro Bowler to play on the other side of him. A new defensive tackle was signed for big money in the offseason and they still have two very good cornerbacks in the secondary.

Despite all this, I’m not fully confident in predicting that the Browns will be good in 2023. It may be overly simplistic to put the success of this team entirely down to their quarterback but that is the case for the 2023 Cleveland Browns. The outcome of their season is likely to be dependent on which Deshaun Watson is playing at quarterback this season. If Watson can play anywhere near to the level that he was playing at with the Texans, prior to his sexual assault allegations, then the Browns will be serious AFC North contenders this year. The doubt comes from the Deshaun Watson we saw at the end of the 2022 season. The offense arguably looked worse under him than it did under Jacoby Brissett, so the question is whether this was due to rustiness or was this a sign of things to come.

I’m on the side that thinks the Browns will be competitive this season and will make a real push for the playoffs. A full offseason, working with the offense towards week one, is bound to improve things, or at least leave the Browns with no excuses for failure. This is a big season for the Cleveland Browns though. After spending an awful lot of financial and moral capital on Deshaun Watson, they need to start seeing a return.

In sixteen seasons as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record. I am not predicting them to have a losing record this season either. I may have even underestimated them by giving them a 9-8 record and they could possibly challenge for the AFC North title. A lot depends on the development of second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett. In 13 games last season he only threw for seven touchdowns, compared to nine interceptions, but there were signs of improvement as the season progressed. Over the last five games of the season, he threw four touchdowns to just the one interception and if he can use this promising end to the season to take a leap in year two then the Pittsburgh Steelers could be a very dangerous team in 2023. Pickett has plenty of offensive weapons to work with. George Pickens and Dionte Johnson are a very good receiving duo and if Allen Robinson can get close to the form he is capable of then this could be a really good receiving corps. Pat Freiermuth, who had a productive season at tight end last year, is now paired with the monster that is Darnell Washington and if Najee Harris can return to his 2021 form then the running game will also be in very good shape.

It is on the defensive side of the ball though where the Steelers excel. TJ Watt is one of the most devastating pass rushers in the NFL and they also have Alex Highsmith, who was outstanding last year when Watt was out injured. Cameron Heyward is a top defensive end and they have one of the best safeties in the league in Minkah Fitzpatrick, who now has Patrick Peterson joining himto bolster the secondary further.

Pittsburgh will definitely be competitive in 2023 but just how successful they can be will depend a lot on their second-year quarterback.

AFC South

The Jaguars made a huge leap last season. After finishing the 2021 season with a league worst 3-14 record, they bounced back in style, finishing 9-8, winning the AFC South and achieving a playoff victory over the Chargers. I fully expect the Jaguars to build on that success this season and get even better.

Last season, Trevor Lawrence showed why there was so much hype about him ahead of the 2021 draft. It was a breakout season for the former Clemson QB, with him throwing for 4113 yards and 25 touchdowns and I expect even more from him this year. This could be the year where Lawrence firmly cements himself as one of the very best quarterbacks in the league and the Jaguars as a real force in the AFC. Calvin Ridley has joined to bolster an already productive receiving corps containing Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and with Travis Etienne and Evan Engram also on this offense, the Jags should be a fun team to watch. The defense was solid enough last year, finishing 12th in points allowed and there is a lot of talk coming out of training camp that Travon Walker will make a big leap this season.

The AFC South is one of the weakest divisions in the league, so I fully expect them to retain their division title this year. The real interest could come in seeing how much of an impact they can make in the postseason.

A year after claiming the one seed in the AFC, the Titans plummeted back down to earth last season, finishing with a 7-10 record. With Ryan Tannehill now 35 and Derrick Henry turning 30 this season, it seemed as if the time was ripe for a rebuild. A new GM was brought in and they drafted a rookie quarterback for the second successive year. But then they signed DeAndre Hopkins. While they may have one eye on the future, this Titans team is not yet in full rebuild mode and Mike Vrabel fully expects them to be competitive this season. That’s what I expect from them too.

DeAndre Hopkins was a much-needed signing for them and significantly improves what was possibly the weakest receiving corps in the league. Ryan Tannehill is still worthy of a starting spot at QB in the NFL and despite Derrick Henry’s advancing years, he still rushed for over 1500 yards last year and will still be the main focus for this offense. With Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry on the defensive line, the Titans defense will be a strength again for this team and in Mike Vrabel, they have one of the best and most competitive head coaches in the league.

Competitive is a word I keep coming back to when describing this Titans team and while they may lack talent in certain areas of their roster, I do expect them to compete for a wildcard spot, even if they may fall short in the end.

The Houston Texans have not achieved more than four wins in any of the previous three seasons and I have predicted them to fail to do that again this year. But this year will be a very different season for them. The success of their season will not be measured by the number of wins they achieve but by the signs of progress they show.

The roster is currently one of the weakest in the league but there is a great deal of promise on it. Their defense has a trio of highly promising youngsters in Will Anderson Jr, Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre and on offense, Dameon Pierce had a promising rookie year with 939 rushing yards in 13 games. Then there is their second overall draft pick, quarterback CJ Stroud. 2023 will be deemed a success if Stroud shows signs that he can be the franchise quarterback they have been lacking since Deshaun Watson left.

Possibly the most important arrival in Houston during the offseason though was new head coach DeMeco Ryans. A former Texans linebacker, he has been DC in San Francisco the last two years, during which time they have been one of the best defenses in the league, if not the best. A young coach more than ready for his first head coaching role, who also has a strong affinity with the city of Houston, could be the perfect man to start turning this roster of promising youngsters into a team. 2023 may not hold many wins for the Houston Texans but the future could be bright for them.

On paper, the Indianapolis Colts are in a very similar situation to the Texans. They have an exciting rookie quarterback, picked up in the top four of the draft, and an exciting first-time head coach. Yet, the feeling in Indianapolis is not quite as feelgood as it is in Houston. A large part of this is due to the offseason drama involving running back Jonathan Taylor. Without a doubt, Taylor is the Colts’ star player and as a result, he wants to be paid as one. The Colts have no interest in giving him a new contract yet though and so Taylor wants out and has requested a trade. As a result, there are question marks over how much he will play for the Colts this season and if he does suit up, what sort of mindset will he be in.

The reason Taylor is so important to this offense is that they will be starting a rookie quarterback who is incredibly raw. Anthony Richardson may possess a great deal of potential, but he only made 13 starts in college, the joint fewest by a first-round pick since 2000, and he has a career completion percentage of 55%, the worst by a first-round pick since 2011. I think it will be fun watching Richardson and I am fully expecting plenty of incredible plays, but I am also expecting a very inconsistent season from him, and he will struggle at times. A fully fit and committed Taylor would help to take the pressure off the rookie quarterback and possibly help the team grind out some wins with the running game. Whether this will be the case this season though remains to be seen.

In a way, this season is a write-off for the Colts in terms of results. A successful season for them would involve the development of Anthony Richardson into an NFL-calibre starting quarterback and Shane Steichen starting to build this team in his vision. Already, I would suggest that 2024 is the season that Colts fans should be looking forward to.

AFC West

2015 was the last season where the Kansas City Chiefs failed to win the AFC West. I do not see that run ending this season. Last year was supposed to be the year where the Chiefs would be seriously

threatened in this division after the major offseason moves by the Broncos, Raiders and Chargers. Instead, the Chiefs romped to a 14-3 record and the number one seed in the AFC before Mahomes and Reid won their second Lombardi trophy together.

There have been changes in Kansas City over the offseason. Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster have left the receiving corps and the Chiefs will be looking at Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and rookie Rashee Rice to step up. Mahomes has proven that he does not need an outstanding collection of receivers to excel though, and he does still have a certain Travis Kelce. A more interesting change that could affect Mahomes is on the offensive line where both of last year’s starting tackles have been replaced. The 2021 Super bowl defeat to the Buccaneers was largely blamed on the poor showing by the Chiefs’ offensive line and so it will be interesting to see if Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can provide Mahomes with the protection he needs. The other interesting change is at offensive coordinator where Eric Bieniemy, who has been in the position since 2018, has been replaced with Matt Nagy. Nagy though is the man who Bienemy replaced, and he was on the staff as quarterbacks coach for the Super Bowl triumph last year, so this change could be seamless.

As long as Reid and Mahomes are at the club, I would expect the Chiefs to challenge for the Superbowl. They will be up there again this year, but I think they will fall just short of the big prize.

Arguably, the Chargers have one of the most talented starting line-ups in the NFL. Justin Herbert is an absolute star at quarterback and running back Austin Ekeler is one of the very best at the position. They have an incredibly strong receiving corps containing Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer and rookie Quentin Johnson and a top ten offensive line, headed by Rashawn Slater. Their defense contains stars such as Joey Bosa, Khali Mack, Assante Samuel and Derwin James. So, why are they not talked of as Super Bowl contenders?

It's too simple to say that ‘Chargers gonna charger’ but giving up a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars in the playoffs last season did not help the team drop that sentiment. This loss led to question marks over head coach Brandon Staley. There were calls for him to be replaced after that shocking loss, especially as they played that game without Mike Williams after Staley controversially decided to play his starters in a dead week 18 game. Many are unconvinced that Staley has the coaching ability to take this team all the way to the Super Bowl and with such a talented collection of stars as this, he may have to do just that this year to keep his job. Ultimately though, I don’t think he is the man to do this. I see them making the playoffs, but it could be another one and done for this team.

The Broncos were an absolute trainwreck in 2022 as they plummeted to the bottom of the AFC West with a 5-12 record. According to new head coach Sean Payton, the blame for such an abysmal season lies at the feet of Nathanial Hackett, who lost his job as head coach after just one season. Some have the arrival of Sean Payton as being the catalyst to completely turn this team around and send them to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. They say that quarterback whisperer Payton will get Russell Wilson back to his best and 2023 will be a good year for the Broncos. I am not one of those people.

The Denver Broncos are not a good team. The roster that will play the 2023 season is largely the same roster that bombed last year, and any new additions haven’t been major improvements, more replacements for players lost. Then, there is still the issue that is Russell Wilson. Last year, he was a shadow of the player that won the Super Bowl with Seattle and I have very little confidence that he will step out at the start of the season playing like an elite quarterback. The weapons he has around him are far from elite too. While a receiving corps containing Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton could be promising, only Sutton has a 1000-yard season and that was back in 2019. At running back, they have Javonte Williams, a promising and exciting back, but one who is coming off a serious ACL injury. The Broncos do have a pretty solid defense but it is on offense they really struggled last year, and it is on offense where I think their issues will be again this year.

The arrival of Payton will improve this team and should lead to more wins than last year, but to suggest he will turn them into challengers is a tad optimistic. I think the Broncos will be better under him and will gain more wins, but they may have to wait until 2024 to make a serious playoff push.

Josh McDaniels struggled last year in his first season as head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, leading the team to a dismal 6-11 record. Looking at the offseason changes that this team has made, the 2023 Raiders seem to be weaker than their 2022 counterparts. The major change is that quarterback Derek Carr has been replaced with Jimmy Garoppolo. In my opinion, this is a downgrade at the position, compounded by Jimmy G’s injury history which may mean that Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O’Connell start games for Las Vegas this season. Then, there is the departure of Darren Waller, a tight end with two 1000-yard receiving seasons under his belt. Austin Hooper and Michael Mayer are the two new additions to the roster but neither is of the quality of Waller. As for the star players that remain in Las Vegas, there are issues there too. After leading the league in rushing yards in 2022, Josh Jacobs wanted a contract to reflect his contribution to the team but instead got franchise tagged. The star running back responded by boarding a flight out of Las Vegas and he has yet to show up to practice. There is a very real possibility that Jacobs will miss games for the Raiders for the season, if not holdout for the entire year. Another star player on the offensive side of the ball to have reason to feel aggrieved with the team’s management is Davante Adams. Adams joined Las Vegas last season, admitting that the chance to play with college teammate and friend Derek Carr was the reason he joined the team. After replacing Carr with Garoppolo, Adams was reported as saying that he doesn’t see “eye-to-eye” with the team on their plans for the offense. Now, there is no suggestion that Adams is looking to leave but this serves as another example of all not being well in Las Vegas.

Head coach Josh McDaniels is another issue for this team. While a terrific offensive mind, enjoying great success with Tom Brady in New England, he has struggled as a head coach. He’s 17-28 in three seasons as a head coach and I don’t see that record improving this year. Some coaches are just better as coordinators, and I think McDaniels is one of these. I cannot see him being the man to turn this franchise around this season, especially with the roster being weaker than last year. This could be McDaniels’ final year as an NFL head coach and a difficult year for Raiders fans.

Daniel Rowe

AFC Preview

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