If one thing is constant in today’s NFL, it is that absolutely nothing is constant. With very few exceptions, the days of Mean Joe Greene spending his entire 12-year NFL career wreaking havoc on opposing offenses for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dan Marino spending almost two decades chasing that elusive Super Bowl victory entirely with the Miami Dolphins are in the rearview mirror.

Driven by free agency, a hard salary cap, mind-numbing quarterback contracts, and an ever-more interwoven cross-league culture amplified 24/7 by social media and the unmatched media attention the league garners, the NFL has more and more become one large enterprise with 32 affiliates rather than 32 isolated organizations competing independent of one another.

No team is immune to this constant change. Winning teams frequently have their coaching staffs raided and standout players cashing in on their success. Less successful teams often find coaching tumult of their own through unceremonious dismissals, and players tend to grow weary of losing and/or rebuilding and look for new beginnings elsewhere.

The NFC North division is a prime example of how upside-down one year can look from another. In a single offseason, teams can lose their leading passer (Green Bay), leading rusher (Minnesota, Detroit), leading receiver (Green Bay), and leading tackler (Minnesota, Chicago), along with several other key contributors on both sides of the ball. Roster turnover in today’s NFL is the inevitable of all inevitables, and how teams manage that turnover will go a long way in determining that team’s level of success.

Few divisions are as wide open as the NFC North in 2023. Though a glance at the standings from 2022 would show a cavernous ten-game gap from the first place Vikings to the last place Bears, even a scrape beneath the surface suggests a far more competitive division in 2023. Let’s peek beneath that surface for each team and project what may be in store for the coming season.

Few 13-win teams in the history of the NFL were as ‘unconvincing’ as the 2022 Vikings (see my “Paper Tigers” article for a deep dive). Despite the 13-4 record, the Vikings were outscored during the regular season, suffered multiple blowout losses, and looked wildly overmatched against the NFC’s elite. This all led to a predictable first-round home playoff loss to the New York Giants, the fallout from which included the firing of defensive coordinator Ed Donatell and a large-scale upheaval of the defensive roster.

Gone is long-standing defensive play caller LB Eric Kendricks, who was released for cap reasons and signed with the Los Angeles Chargers. DE Za’Darius Smith, another cap casualty, is now in Cleveland. Also gone are veteran defensive starters DT Dalvin Tomlinson and CB Patrick Peterson who took free-agent deals elsewhere. This leaves a fair number of holes for new defensive coordinator Brian Flores to fill on a defense that already struggled to stop anyone in 2022. Recent high round draft picks S Lewis Cine and CB Andrew Booth, Jr. have had their early careers derailed by injuries, and limited cap space made it difficult for the Vikings to bring in help from elsewhere. They were able to land CB Byron Murphy (oddly, the same player that replaced Peterson in Arizona) and DE Marcus Davenport, a first-round pick in 2018 who struggled with injuries and inconsistency in five years with the New Orleans Saints, in free agency. The Vikings also brought back DE Danielle Hunter after a lengthy negotiation on a 1-year deal, which should help maintain some semblance of a pass rush for 2023 for a defense that ranked 31st overall in 2022.

As for the offense, the top-8 ranked unit in 2022 will have to chart a course forward without the services of RB Dalvin Cook, yet another cap casualty who signed a short-term deal with the New York Jets. RB Alexander Mattison re-upped with the Vikings this offseason and will take over in what will likely be more of a committee approach going forward. Rookie WR Jordan Addison (currently in concussion protocol) has been impressing his way through training camp after a rocky offseason, and he joins superstar WR Justin Jefferson (who is due an enormous new contract) and pending free agent star TE T.J. Hockenson in an elite passing game headed by another pending free agent in QB Kirk Cousins. The offensive line, a seemingly never-ending issue in Minnesota, has a few question marks with a couple of middling guards and star RT Brian O’Neill recovering from a late-season torn Achillies. C Garrett Bradbury was brought back on a 3-year deal and should help keep things from deteriorating further on the interior line.

The schedule is a balanced one for the Vikings, with no more than two consecutive home or road games all season long. A litany of primetime games suggests the league and the networks expect the Vikings to be in contention for another division title, and this writer tends to agree. Cousins, for the first time as a Viking, will have the same offensive system and the same offensive coordinator for a second consecutive year. Head coach Kevin O’Connell loves to throw, and coupled with Cousins looking to cash in on one more big contract before he hangs it up could portend big things for this offense. Hopefully a revamped defense can keep up.

J.D.’s PROJECTION: 10-7

What do the numbers ‘2’ and ‘1992’ have in common?

Two is the number of starting quarterbacks the Green Bay Packers have deployed since 1992, an astonishing 30-year run between Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers entrenching the Packers as perennial Super Bowl contenders while playing the QB position at the highest possible level. But 2023 will be the pilot episode of “The Jordan Love Show” in Title Town, and though the trailer has shown striking similarities to the Favre-Rodgers prequel, the Rodgers-Love transition season is still in pre-production.

To be fair, no one, including Jordan Love, should have to face that kind of pressure, and this writer will certainly leave room for the former first-round pick to grow. But the naysayers are out there, and given the draft capital the Packers spent to move up and take him 26th overall in 2020 combined with the mixed opinions on Love’s progress thus far seeping out of Packers camp, there is a lot at stake for the young signal caller as he embarks on his first year as the starting QB.

Love has a decent supporting cast, with LT David Bakhtiari anchoring a solid offensive line in front of him, and two high-enders in RB Aaron Jones and RB A.J. Dillon behind him. The WR corps is full of young-if-not-yet-proven talent with second-year pros WR Christian Watson and WR Romeo Doubs along with rookie WR Jayden Reed. The lack of a proven TE could be problematic, as younger QBs tend to look for them when plays break down, but it does provide rookie TE Luke Musgrave a chance to make an immediate impact. A lot of question marks surround the Packers offense, specifically the passing game, and Love’s ability to hit the ground running will go a long way in determining the ultimate success of this team in 2023. That said, it will be interesting to watch a Matt LaFleur offense in action free of the on-field antics of A-Rodg, who was notorious for doing things his own way.

The defence is improving by the year, starting with their defensive line anchored by DT Kenny Clark. The linebacker group is as good of a unit top-to-bottom as there in the NFL, and the secondary boasts a good mix of solid veterans and young talent, led by all-pro CB Jaire Alexander. This unit has promised to be more aggressive in 2023 than in years past, having failed to make the most of the final years of having Aaron Rodgers leading the offense. This defensive group will have to be the heart of this team along with the running game, at least at the outset.

The early schedule sets up nicely for Green Bay, with winnable road games at Chicago and Atlanta to start, but a tough stretch from weeks 10-13 with road games at Pittsburgh and Detroit and home games against the Chargers and Chiefs, all potential playoff teams, could prove too much for the young QB in year one.

J.D.’s PROJECTION: 8-9

The Lions backed up their post- “Hard Knocks” hype by free-falling to a 1-6 record out of the gate before winning eight of their last ten games in 2022. This upward trajectory, culminating in a week 18 victory that bounced the Green Bay Packers out of playoff contention has the Lions as the trendy pick to win the NFC North in 2023. They have Dan Campbell, the league’s most relatable head coach, and their season tickets sold out for the first time in the history of Ford Field.

This optimism was met with a sledge hammer by the NFL schedule makers, as the Lions open the season at the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday, September 7th. After that, however, the early schedule sets up favorably for Detroit, and this writer can easily see them at 6-2 into their bye week before competition stiffens in the second half, finishing with two games against the defending NFC North Champion Vikings weeks 16 and 18 that could well decide the division.

The Lions offense comes into 2023 having finished 2022 ranked 4th overall in the NFL, ranking in the top 12 in both rushing and passing. That rushing offense, however, will look completely different in 2023 as both RB Jamaal Williams (Saints) and RB D’Andre Swift (Eagles) have found new homes. The Lions pilfered RB David Montgomery from the division-rival Bears in free agency, and used the 12th overall pick (!) to draft Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is as good as it gets on the outside, while WR Marvin Jones, Jr. and WR Josh Reynolds provide underwhelming depth. WR Jameson Williams, the 12th overall pick in 2022, is on the fast track to becoming a cautionary tale and will spend the first six games of the 2023 season serving a suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy before he has another chance to right the ship. The mid-season trade of former Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson to Minnesota made room for the Lions to draft former Iowa TE Sam LaPorta 34th overall, who has impressed throughout the offseason and looks to start week one. Combine all this with a solid QB in Jared Goff and a top-5 offensive line, and this Lions offense could be a serious force in 2023.

The defence on the other hand ranked dead-last in the NFL in 2022 in total yards allowed, including 29th against the run and 30th against the pass. DE Aidan Hutchinson, a budding potential superstar, bookends a defensive line very much in progress. Detroit made a starter out of LB Alex Anzalone in 2022 and he rewarded them by leading the team in tackles. They also added LB Jack Campbell out of Iowa with the 18th overall pick. The Lions also overhauled their secondary in free agency, bringing in CB Cameron Sutton, CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and CB Emmanuel Moseley, the latter two of whom are already nursing injuries with uncertain timelines. It’s a lot of new pieces at once, and it could be a challenge to bring it all together cohesively, at least in 2023.

J.D.’s PROJECTION: 10-7

Ryan Poles spent 13 years working his way up the executive ladder with the Kansas City Chiefs and was hired as general manager of the Chicago Bears in January 2022. In March 2023, Poles wagered his entire career (at least with the Bears) by trading the number one overall pick in the upcoming draft (AKA the right to draft Alabama QB Bryce Young) to Carolina for a return that included two first round picks and a proven WR in D.J. Moore, driven by a belief that the glimpses of stardom QB Justin Fields showed in 2022 were not just flashes in the proverbial pan.

Give Poles credit; it takes guts for a 36-year-old executive to risk his reputation on a QB that is 5-20 as an NFL starter. If it goes wrong, it’s a career albatross that likely follows him forever. But if he’s right, and Fields really is on the cusp of greatness, this will be remembered as one of the savviest draft moves in recent NFL history.

Fields did progress in 2022, highlighted by some jaw-dropping rushing performances on his way to 1,143 rushing yards. His passing improved modestly, increasing his completion percentage by a point and a half, improving his TD/INT ratio from -3 to +6, and increasing his passer rating by 12 points. But the shortcomings were still painfully evident, most notably an ongoing struggle to read the entire field. The internet in all its unforgiving, unrelenting glory is full of screen shots of wide-open Chicago Bear receivers not being thrown the ball. A wise man once said, “The internet always wins.” It also never forgets.

RB David Montgomery, the Bears leading rusher in 2022 not named Justin Fields, signed with Detroit, leaving RB Khalil Herbert as the Bears lead back. Herbert has thrived in increased roles when filling in for the oft-injured Montgomery over the past two seasons, and the Bears are hoping for more of the same. RB D’Onta Foreman was brought in to provide depth, and the team drafted former Texas RB Roschon Johnson in the 4th round. The acquisition of Moore instantly upgrades an underperforming WR group that includes WR Darnell Mooney coming off a terrible, injury-riddled 2022, and WR Chase Claypool, acquired mid-last season from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Add in up-and-coming TE Cole Kmet and a couple of steady veterans in TE Robert Tonyan and TE Marcedes Lewis behind him, Fields should have everything he needs to take a giant step forward in 2023, their 21st ranked offensive line notwithstanding.

The Bears’ defense was largely awful in 2022, ranking 29th overall and giving up over 157 yards per game on the ground, good for 31st ahead of only the Houston Texans. They also managed an impossibly low 20 sacks last season, leading them to sign the ultimate ‘jack of one trade’ and perennially available DE Yannick Ngakoue to bolster what was a non-existent pass rush. The LB corps, led by prized free agent acquisition LB Tremaine Edmunds (Buffalo), is solid, and a young and improving secondary looks poised to jump into the elite category this season.

A very difficult stretch from weeks 2-12, which takes the Bears on the road for seven out of 11 games may put this team in an insurmountable hole. But in a division that is completely up for grabs, if they can steal a game or two while running that gauntlet and take advantage of an easier schedule down the stretch, this team could surprise a lot of people. This writer, however, still thinks they’re a year away.

J.D.’s PROJECTION: 7-10

J.D.’s NFC NORTH PROJECTIONS:

DETROIT 10-7

MINNESOTA 10-7

GREEN BAY 8-9

CHICAGO 7-10

BONUS WEEK 18 PREDICTION:

Detroit walks off winners at home against the Vikings with the division crown on the line, 27-26. Vikings grab a wild card spot, but the Lions take the North in 2023 with a better division record after splitting with Minnesota.

J.D Day

2023 NFC North Preview

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