Breaking Down The 49ers/Cowboys NFC Divisional Round Match-Up!
The Cowboys and 49ers meet up in San Francisco on Sunday for another chapter in their storied rivalry. Each team is coming off of a relatively pain-free Wild Card victory. Dallas is looking to make their 1st NFC Championship game since their 1995 Super Bowl-winning season. San Francisco, who is favoured by 6.5, is looking to avenge their 2021 NFC Championship game loss. Which team has what it takes to pull it off?
Quarterbacks
This has been the only glaring hole on the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan, and they’ve tried everything to fill it. From trading for Tom Brady understudy Jimmy Garoppolo to drafting Trey Lance 3rd overall. The desperation is warranted, as they probably would have won a Super Bowl if they had just an average option under center.
Enter Brock Purdy. After losing both Lance and Jimmy G to injury, Purdy has thrown for 16 TDs to just 3 INTs since taking over during the Week 13 game versus Miami. More importantly, the 49ers are undefeated with Brock at QB. Not bad for the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft! But can he keep it up?
At this point, Cowboy fans know what they’ll be getting from Dak Prescott. Unfortunately, it’s not always good. He’s certainly more than capable of being the player who had a masterful 300-yard, 4-TD performance last week. Unfortunately, it was only his 2nd game this season without an interception. In fairness to Dak, he did miss some time due to injury, but he’s a tier below what the Cowboys need him to be if they want to break their Super Bowl drought.
I’d rather have Purdy doing his ‘99 Kurt Warner impression in this offence.
Advantage: 49ers
Running Backs
Both of these teams finished in the top 10 in rushing yards per game this season. How they got there is a different story.
Dallas features a 1-2 punch here with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Elliott is the name most recognize as the feature back, but he’s lost a step or two. He still managed to lead the Cowboys with 12 rushing TDs though. Pollard ran for 9 TDs himself and led the team with just over 1,000 yards rushing. He finished 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry among all 1,000-yard rushers and every carry that goes to Zeke instead of him is a win for the opposing defence.
San Francisco counters that 1-2 punch with a 5-punch combo. They had 4 backs finish with at least 250 yards on the ground, and that doesn’t include do-it-all WR Deebo Samuel, who is just as dangerous taking handoffs as he is catching passes. This attack is led by Christian McCaffrey, who came over in a midseason trade. It took some time for the team to figure out how to use him, but he’s gone over the 100-yard mark in 4 of his last 6 games.
The Cowboys are very good at running the ball, but the 49ers just have too many weapons here.
Advantage: 49ers
Receivers/Tight Ends
I mentioned Christian McCaffrey leads the 49ers running attack, but you have to treat him as a receiver as well. He had 1,000 yards receiving in a season out of the backfield for the Panthers, and he’s always a threat in the passing game. The aforementioned Deebo Samuel had a down year due to injury, but he’s one of the most explosive weapons in the league.
The 49ers were led by WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle. Aiyuk slid into the #1 slot for the injured Samuel admirably and finished with his first 1000-yard season. He doesn’t put up monster numbers, but that’s more of a function of the offence and lack of QB talent pre-Purdy. Kittle’s numbers have gone down for the same reason, but he’s been a top 5 TE since his 2nd season.
Unlike Aiyuk, CeeDee Lamb HAS put up monster numbers at WR for the Cowboys. Unfortunately, he’s the only one. TE Dalton Schultz is reliable but won’t make fans forget about Jason Witten anytime soon. The rest of the receiving corps is rather pedestrian. They have neither the talent nor the options of the 49ers here.
Advantage: 49ers
Offensive Line
Alright, let’s start with some good news here for Dallas. They’re not only one of the better rushing teams in the league, but they are also above-average when it comes to protecting the QB. G Zack Martin is an All-Pro. This is one of the more talented units in the game. Now for the bad news…
San Francisco is better here too. That’s why they’re able to be so creative on offence. Tackle Trent Williams could block out the sun. He has shown no signs of slowing down. Nobody else on this unit is necessarily a stand-out talent individually, but they just fit together perfectly. They’re also healthy whereas the Cowboys will be without starting tackle Jason Peters.
Advantage: 49ers
Kicking
The only drama in the Cowboys’ Wild Card win over the Buccaneers was K Brett Maher’s inability to make an extra point. He missed an improbable 4 in a row before putting one through the uprights. He’s clearly going through something. The team decided to stick with him but did sign Tristan Vizcaino as insurance.
49ers K Robbie Gould has been doing this forever. He’s no longer quite at his peak, but you have to trust him more than Maher or Vizcaino at this point.
Advantage: 49ers
Offence
The 49ers have come close to winning the Super Bowl with this offence when they had a bad QB in Jimmy G. Purdy has looked incredible by comparison, so what is their weakness on this side of the ball and how do you exploit it? Dallas can put up points, but San Francisco just has too many options.
Advantage: 49ers
Defensive Line
Very similar to the OL matchup here. Dallas’ defensive line is incredibly talented. Pro Bowler Demarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong Jr., and Dante Fowler combined for 20.5 sacks. Not only do they get pressure on opposing QBs themselves, but they occupy blockers for the LBs behind them. They’re also solid against the run.
But, again, the 49ers are just better. DE Nick Bosa led the league in sacks with 18.5. He’s as difficult to block as anybody in the NFL. Against the run, they are even more suffocating. They tied for the league lead by allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. The Cowboys’ OL is going to have their hands full.
Advantage: 49ers
Linebackers
And the 49ers’ OL will have their hands full with this Cowboys’ unit. Micah Parsons is one of the best defensive players in the league. Mostly known for his pass-rushing prowess, he’s just as good at stopping the run. Leighton Vander Esch returned from injury last week, and the Cowboys had one of their better defensive performances in a while as a result. This is the most talented unit they have on either side of the ball, which could mean trouble for the 49ers’ young QB.
On the other side, the 49ers have their own All-Pro in tackling machine Fred Warner. He’s a big reason why this run defense is so tough. Although not quite on Warner’s level, Dre Greenlaw would have led the team in tackles if he played in all 17 games. This is an incredibly talented group as well, but it’s hard to pick against the big play potential of Parsons.
Advantage: Cowboys
Defensive Backs
This is the 49ers’ worst unit. They aren’t terrible here, but they have had some issues containing the league’s top WRs. CeeDee Lamb fits the bill, so he could have a big day. All-Pro Safety Talanoa Hufanga has been nothing short of a revelation in his second season. He’s combined with fellow Safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. for 9 INTs to help the 49ers tie for the league lead in picks this year. Don’t be surprised if they come away with a takeaway or two against interception-prone Dak.
Star DB Trevon Diggs didn’t come close to matching last season’s interception total, but that’s because he’s worked on becoming a little bit more disciplined in coverage. He’ll still get burned, but not nearly as often as last year. He still possesses the ball skills he used to get those 11 picks last season though. Safety Donovan Wilson is a sneaky good pass rusher and finished with 5 sacks on the year. They miss the injured Anthony Brown, but this is a solid group who can make some big plays.
This one is close, but I like the Cowboys versus a rookie QB more than I like the 49ers against CeeDee Lamb.
Advantage: Cowboys
Punters
Bryan Anger has one of the strongest legs in the league. He had the longest punt of the season, an 83-yard bomb. He’s an incredible weapon when the Cowboys need to flip the field. Mitch Wishnowsky lead the NFL in percentage of punts inside the 20, but the actual number of times he did it was only 5 more than Anger. He also was near the bottom of the league in net yards per punt.
Advantage: Cowboys
Defence
These are 2 great defences with star power and playmakers. The 49ers led the league in scoring defense and interceptions, but the Cowboys weren’t far behind in either. In fact, they might have led the league in scoring defense but had 2 awful performances as a result of the Vander Esch injury. He’s back and looked good last week, and I think that pushes them in front by the slimmest of margins.
Advantage: Cowboys
The Verdict
This is going to be a good one! Purdy faces his toughest test yet, but he responds well thanks to Kyle Shanahan’s offensive genius while Dak Prescott makes one mistake too many against this sack and interception-happy 49er defense.
49ers win and move on to the NFC Title Game!
