Breaking Down The Bills/Bengals AFC Divisional Round Match-Up
As we all know, the regular season Week 17 matchup between these two was halted mid-game, and eventually canceled, due to the scary medical emergency suffered by Bills S Damar Hamlin. Hamlin has thankfully made a miraculous recovery, so we can turn our attention to the on-field action!
The Bills were many people’s preseason Super Bowl favourite, and they have lived up to the hype for the most part. They are currently 5.5-point favourites against last season’s AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, who have shown no real signs of a post-Super Bowl slump. However, both teams come into this one after lacklustre Wild Card performances against teams playing backup QBs. So what can we expect from them on Sunday?
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are 2 of the best at the position in the league. Both threw for over 4000 yards and 35 TDs on the season. They manage to do it in different ways though. Burrow plays the more traditional pocket passer role for the Bengals. Nothing about his physical skills will impress you, but he just gets it done. Very Brady-esque in that regard.
Allen, on the other hand, is the most physically gifted QB since Cam Newton. Like Newton, he’s also a human wrecking ball when he decides to run, which adds a dimension to his game that Burrow does not possess. However, he’s always looking to make the big play instead of just taking what the defence gives him, which causes him to be interception-prone at times. He’s thrown 5 in his last 3 games. Possessions are just too important in the postseason, so give me the more accurate and more patient Burrow.
Advantage: Bengals
Running Backs
While QB Josh Allen accounts for a significant amount of Buffalo’s rushing yards, they also have a solid 1-2 punch out of the backfield in Devin Singletary and James Cook. They are both explosive runners, averaging 4.6 and 5.7 yards per carry, respectively. The Bengals’ Joe Mixon and Semaje Perine are serviceable but can be kept in check much easier. They have combined for only 5 runs of 20 yards are more, while Cook had 6 such runs for the Bills on just 89 carries.
Advantage: Bills
Receivers/Tight Ends
It’s hard to imagine a better matchup of #1 receivers than the one we’ll see here. Bengals WR Jamarr Chase missed 5 games this season but had another 1,000-yard season to go along with 9 TDs. Bills WR Stefon Diggs finished in the top 5 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs this season. You couldn’t go wrong with either of them.
As you move down the depth chart though, you start seeing some separation. Bills WR Gabe Davis is a big-play threat, averaging over 17 yards per catch, but Bengals WR Tee Higgins would be a #1 option on a lot of other teams in this league. He had a 1,000-yard season of his own, and the Bengals’ #3 receiver, Tyler Boyd, had 762 yards.
The Bengals also have the reliable Hayden Hurst at TE if, for whatever reason, one of those three isn’t open. Bills TE Dawson Knox has caught a TD in 5 consecutive games, but it’s not nearly enough to make up the talent disparity at WR.
Advantage: Bengals
Offensive Line
Will Burrow have time to throw to all these options with this line protecting him? He’s struggled to stay upright behind this line since he got to the league, and now they’re down La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, AND Jonah Williams.
The Bills are better by default simply because they’re healthy. Throw in the fact that Allen is one of the least pressured QBs in the league AND they lead the league in yards before contact when running the ball, and it’s no contest.
Advantage: Bills
Kicking
Evan McPherson came through for the Bengals during their run to the Super Bowl last season but has had some bizarre misses on Extra Points this year. With this one being in Buffalo, where the elements could play a role, I’d rather have the slightly more consistent home kicker, Tyler Bass.
Advantage: Bills
Offence
This is a close call. It comes down to who you trust more: Joe Burrow’s O-Line or Josh Allen to take care of the ball. I’m taking Allen and the Bills here in the slimmest of margins.
Advantage: Bills
Defensive Line
Do the Bills have what it takes to take advantage of the Bengals’ OL issues? If they don’t, it’s not for lack of trying. 3 of their starting 4 defensive linemen were drafted in the 1st round by Buffalo. The most recent one, 2nd-year DE Gregory Rousseau, led them with 8 sacks.
The Bengals have a Pro Bowler in DE Trey Hendrickson, but these teams are pretty similar here. Neither is going to give up a lot of rushing yards or put up big sack numbers but can put some pressure on opposing QBs. Going Bills here solely because I like the matchup with that Bengals O-Line.
Advantage: Bills
Linebackers
Where you see the biggest impact of the Bills’ DL is how they’ve opened things up for this linebacking crew. Particularly for Matt Milano, who was named 1st Team All-Pro this year. He led the team with 12 TFLs. This is a versatile group that matches up as well as you could hope for what the Bengals like to do offensively.
Speaking of versatile, Bengals’ LB Logan Wilson has been an interception machine his first 3 seasons in the league. He also forced the goal-line fumble by Ravens QB Tyler Huntley that was returned for the game-winning TD last week. This group doesn’t have the flashiest stats, but they are solid in their own right. However, I’m going with budding star Milano and the Bills.
Advantage: Bills
Defensive Backs
The Bills have lost 2 DBs to the IR this year in Micah Hyde and the aforementioned Damar Hamlin. They’ve managed to overcome that so far in large part by intercepting passes. Safety Jordan Poyer led the way with 4. They’re going to have their hands full with Burrow and the Bengals receiving corp, so they need their DL to get to the QB early and often.
Cincy’s secondary is underrated, mostly because it’s hard to believe in a team that has to use Eli Apple. Unfortunately for the Bengals, that popular opinion is correct when it comes to this particular matchup. Apple is the last DB I’d want when facing Josh Allen and his deep ball. Get your memes ready and I’ll meet you on Twitter!
Advantage: Bills
Punters
Honestly, I doubt we see either of these punters much. They both have strong legs, averaging nearly 48 yards per punt, but Bills P Drue Chrisman has placed nearly half of his punts since he joined the team inside the 20 yard line. Every yard will matter since each defence will need as much help as they can get, so I’m going Bills here.
Advantage: Bills
Defence
The Bills not only are more talented, but have more favourable matchups. They will certainly have their hands full with the Bengals’ passing attack, but they have enough weapons to make Burrow uncomfortable behind his depleted OL.
Advantage: Bills
The Verdict
As we saw last season, Joe Burrow is incredible at putting a team on his back, so I’m hesitant to bet against him. But it’s going to be hard to put the Bengals on his back if he spends all day on it. And, despite their struggles last week, Buffalo has shown how talented and resilient they are all season long. Joe will do his best to keep it close, but the Bills will come out on top!
Bills win and move on to the AFC Title Game!
