Divisional Round Betting Cheat sheet
In a world were you are roasted mercilessly for your freezing cold takes, it’s only good self preservation to keep an accurate record of all your hits and misgivings. Our Wildcard Weekend Betting Cheat sheet turned some good profit for us as we went 4-1. Here’s a quick recap;
Bills -13,5 (Loss)
Bills/Dolphins Over 43,5 (Win)
49ers -9,5 (Win)
49ers/Seahawks Over 43,5 (Win)
Jaguars to win (Win)
Now, let’s flip the page and bring on the Divisional Round! We need to remember that as a rule of thumb, in the Playoffs, the team that wins the game covers the point spread over 70% of the time. However, we need to keep in mind that as we progress deeper into the playoffs, the points matter much more. This is mainly due to the teams matching up very well in strength against each other. In a nutshell, the margins are much thinner than they are in the Wildcard Round.
During the Playoffs, as I work through the slate, I handicap the games by comparing various team statistical matchups and also factoring in historical trends in the betting market . Here’s a quick rundown of each matchup we have this weekend;
Chiefs v Jaguars
Those who have been wagering bets since way before I was born will tell you that there are fewer automatic bets to place like betting on an Andy Reid coached team to win the game after a Bye week. Coach Andy Reid’s teams are 20-3 Straight Up and 15-8 Against The Spread in post-bye games. As the Number 1 Seed, the Chiefs earned a Bye week during the Wildcard round and they should be foaming at the mouth, raring to go against the Jaguars. This will be the second time that these squads lock horns this season, with the Chiefs winning the first game 27-17. The line opened at Chiefs -9 but has moved down a bit to -8,5 indicating some sharp money coming in on the Jaguars side. The Chiefs matchup favourably against the Jaguars across the board in all the metrics we handicap. Our handicapping model expects the Chiefs to win, but we are not so bullish on them covering the largest point spread of the weekend, putting us in sync with the early sharp bettors.
Favourite bet: Chiefs to win @2/9 (Part 1 of Treble)
Eagles v Giants
Two NFC East teams meeting in a very meaningful Playoff game...who would have thought? The Giants have risen like a phoenix from the ashes under Brian Daboll and have made themselves a worthy opponent against any adversary. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two division rivals this season. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been nursing a shoulder injury and hasn’t had much game time in the last month. The Giants are coming from sinking a ship full of Vikings and morale should be sky high in their camp. When we analyse how these teams match up in terms of metrics , the Eagles come out as comfortable favourites. However, once you consider the familiarity the teams have with each other, it makes you nervous laying as much as 7,5 points. We still expect the Eagles to emerge as winners and to be favoured against all rivals the remainder of the way to the Super Bowl. We’ve gone ahead and placed an Eagles Future Bet . Our rationale at the time of placing the bet was that they had the 4th highest odds, which we viewed as market mistake to pounce on. It also offers an opportunity to hedge and bet on the opposing teams who will have high odds due to their underdog status against the Eagles.
Favourite bets: Eagles to win @2/7. (Part 2 of Treble) Eagles to win the Super Bowl @5/1.
49ers v Cowboys
Clashes between these two giants were phenomenal back in the day when both were dynasties of note. Both teams are far removed from that dominant status though the 49ers are still a force to be reckoned with to some extent with the Cowboys more of a heavyweight off the field than on it. Both teams are coming off impressive wins and find themselves in decent form. The underlying metrics seem to favour the 49ers and so do the bookies. Our handicapping is in consensus with the metrics and the bookies on the 49ers. The Cowboys have satisfied there Playoff win quota and unfortunately their season ends this weekend. We expect the 49ers to win a some what tightly contested affair.
Favourite bet: 49ers to win @1/2. (Part 3 of Treble)
Bills v Bengals
One of the most anticipated matchups of the weekend without a doubt. These two juggernauts met less than 21 days ago, but the encounter was abruptly stopped due to the unfortunate and well documented Damar Hamlin on field cardiac arrest. Prior to the unfortunate events though, the Bengals had come out swinging and had put up points up on the board early. We expect them to have the same aggressive mentality this weekend. When we compare the metrics of the two teams, the Bengals matchup very favourably against the Bills. The Dolphins exposed the cracks in the Bills when they took them to the wire as big underdogs. We expect the Bengals to come in and cause a huge upset, leaving with the win. Underdogs are 7-5 in the last 12 Divisional Round bouts and we expect the Bengals to make it 8-5.
Favourite bet: Bengals to win @2/1.
Our Divisional Round Bets are;
Treble
· Chiefs to win @2/9
· Eagles to win @2/7
· 49ers to win @1/2
Odds @1.36/1. (Bet 2 units)
Bengals to win @2/1.
Eagles to win Super Bowl @5/1.