Breaking Down The Jaguars/Chiefs AFC Divisional Round Match-Up!
If the sound of Tony Dungy and Al Micheal’s voices put you to sleep by halftime of the Wild Card matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers, you woke up to quite a shock on Sunday to find that the Jaguars were able to overcome a 27 point deficit to move on to this Divisional Round showdown with the powerhouse Kansas City Chiefs.
Beating the Chiefs at home might be even more improbable, as the Jaguars open up as 7.5-point underdogs, but this is a different team than the one Kansas City took down 27-17 in Week 10. So let’s break down the matchups and see what you can expect when these two teams face off on Saturday!
Quarterbacks
Okay, so this one is pretty straightforward. Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence has taken an incredible leap forward in his 2nd year in the league but is still prone to turnovers as we saw against the Chargers, where he threw for 4 first-half interceptions to help dig them into that huge hole.
The poise displayed by Lawrence to not only not completely fall apart, but also help lead that historic comeback should not be discounted, but Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is battle-tested and coming off a 5000-yard 40-touchdown season AFTER losing his main weapon, Tyreke Hill, this past offseason.
Advantage: Chiefs
Running Backs
Generally speaking, not a whole lot is expected of 7th-round draft picks. Just making the 53-man roster is an accomplishment. So Isiah Pacheco’s performance this season has been nothing short of incredible, particularly for a team that prefers to utilize the short passing game as their running game. Pacheco finished 5th in rushing among rookies this season with 830 yards, and does just enough at the position for what the Chiefs want to do on offense.
However, Jaguars running back Travis Etienne led all rookies in rushing this year with 1125 yards, showing no ill effects of the Lisfranc injury that kept him sidelined all of last season. He’s one of the fastest players in the league (his Week 17 62-yard TD run was the 8th fastest this season with a top speed of 21.62 MPH), and he had a huge 25-yard run on 4th and 1 to set up the Jags game-winning FG against the Chargers. Can you believe that Urban Meyer wanted to play him at WR?!?
Advantage: Jaguars
Receivers/Tight Ends
When you have Patrick Mahomes throwing you the ball, it’s easy to look good. I could probably have a 1000-yard season if my body didn’t get turned to dust first. But this is a talented group, led by TE Travis Kelce. Kelce showed no signs of slowing down as he had his seventh straight 1000-yard season. Mahomes spreads the wealth between him, TikTok star JuJu Smith-Schuster, and a host of other options, including Jerrick McKinnon who caught 9 TDs despite being listed as a RB.
The Jaguars have their own threat at TE in Evan Engram and feature 2 dynamic wideouts in Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. And Urban Meyer liked Etienne at WR for a reason, so he’s certainly a threat out of the backfield. But, while this group is underrated, I’d still rather have the Chiefs’ weapons.
Advantage: Chiefs
Offensive Line
Both teams are near the top of the league when it comes to blocking the run, but pass blocking is a different story.
The Chiefs led the NFL in total offense and gave up the 3rd fewest sacks while doing so. 2nd-year C Creed Humphrey made his 1st Pro Bowl this season leading this unit. He’s joined by two more Pro Bowlers in T Orlando Brown Jr. and G Joe Thuney. This is one of the best OL groups in the league.
The Jaguars will be without LT Cam Robinson, who is out for the season with a knee injury, and RT Jawaan Taylor has had injury issues this year as well. Like Mahomes, QB Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been sacked a lot this year, but that has more to do with Trevor’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly.
Advantage: Chiefs
Kicking
While Harrison Butker’s slightly down year had a lot to do with attempting longer FGs, kicking is about confidence as much as anything so it’s hard to imagine a more confident guy than Jags K Riley Patterson as he comes off his game-winning FG against the Chargers. Patterson made 85.7% of his kicks this year and has only missed a single XP in his 2 seasons in the NFL.
Advantage: Jaguars
Offense
As explosive as the Jaguars can be at times, it’s hard to compete with the best offense in the NFL. Mahomes is a generational QB, Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down, and the OL is one of the best in the league. How do you stop them?
Advantage: Chiefs
Defensive Line
We’ve got basically the inverse of the OL matchup here.
Each team pressures the QB at almost the exact same rate. The Chiefs definitely have the best individual player in DT Chris Jones who had 15.5 sacks this year, but the Jaguars unit looked impressive last week against a high-powered Chargers offense. They held RB Austin Ekeler to just 2.7 YPC, which was half of his season average.
The problem for them is you have to get pressure on Mahomes if you want to be effective, and I don’t think this Jags unit can do it. Particularly against this Chiefs’ OL. And I fully expect Jones and company to take full advantage of Jacksonville’s issues stopping the pass rush. This could turn into a long day for Lawrence. They sacked him 5 times in their first matchup this season, and that was before Jacksonville’s OL had injury issues.
Advantage: Chiefs
Linebackers
This one is close because both teams are average at best here. Jacksonville is led by Foyesade Oluokun, who was the league’s top tackler with 184 total and 128 solo stops. However, Chiefs LB Nick Bolton finished 2nd to him in both with 180 and 108, respectively. The rest of each team’s LB corp is almost as identical. The difference maker here is Jags’ LB Josh Allen, who has big play potential, who forced 4 fumbles on the season and his fumble return TD in Week 18 sent the Jags to the playoffs.
Advantage: Jaguars
Defensive Backs
This is another close matchup because, again, neither unit really stands out. The Jags’ DBs led the league in Passes Defended, and they’re going to need to be solid this game to have a prayer against Mahomes. However, they also gave up a ton of Passing Yards and Touchdowns this season.
On the other side, the Chiefs were even worse, giving up the most Passing TDs in the NFL with 33. They also were near the bottom of the league in INT %. That’s a recipe for disaster, especially when you have to assume Trevor Lawrence got his playoff jitters out the way last week.
Advantage: Jaguars
Punters
Chiefs’ P Tommy Townsend led the league in Net Punting average with 45.6 Net Yards per Punt. He was better at every aspect of punting than Jaguars P Logan Cooke and a lot of other punters, and he’ll be going to the Pro Bowl as a result.
Advantage: Chiefs
Defense
If you’re looking for question marks about the Chiefs and their Super Bowl chances, this is where you find them. Lawrence and Etienne could have huge days. However, the strength of the Jacksonville defense does not take away from what the Chiefs want to do, so I don’t see them stopping Mahomes from having a big day of his own.
The Verdict
Which Jacksonville team from last week shows up: the one from the 1st half or the one from the 2nd half? And does it matter? Yes, but only in terms of the spread. Kansas City is just too good. There will be a lot of points scored in this one, but Mahomes and the Chiefs simply have more firepower.
Chiefs win and move on to the AFC Title Game!