Divisional Round Preview
After an exciting set of Super Wildcard weekend games, where we saw 4 out of 6 of the matchups settled by just one score, we now move on to the Divisional Round.
There are 8 teams who are still dreaming of making it to Arizona in February for Super Bowl LVII, so let's take a look at all four of this coming weekends matchups:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Jags came back from a 27-point deficit to stun the Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 in the AFC wild-card playoffs. The comeback was the third-largest in NFL playoff history, with Trevor Lawrence and co overcoming five turnovers, including four interceptions by the 2nd year quarterback, in the first half.
With the Chiefs being at home and Arrowhead Stadium continuously providing one of the most intense atmosphere’s for visiting teams in the entire NFL it will be a huge task for Jacksonville, however with the resiliency they showed last week they shouldn’t be counted out.
Last time these two teams played was also at Arrowhead, back in week 10 when the Chiefs won 27-17, with Patrick Mahomes throwing 4 touchdowns for 331 passing yards to one interception. Trevor Lawrence also has a strong performance as the Jags QB completed 29/40 passes for 2 touchdowns and 259 passing yards.
The key thing for Jacksonville which kept them in that game was that they had 0 turnovers whereas KC had 2 lost fumbles and the one pick for Mahomes. Jags head coach Doug Pederson will need his team to play mistake free football once again if Jacksonville are to have any chance of pulling off an upset.
Pederson is known for being one of the most aggressive play calling coaches in the league which we once again saw last week when Jacksonville went for it just before half-time on fourth & 1 with Lawrence hitting Marvin Jones which kept the drive alive before Lawrence then found tight end Evan Engram a few plays later for a touchdown which at the time cut the lead to 27-7.
Then we saw the key play of them all as with 1:28 remaining; Pederson called a timeout as he didn’t like the look but still decided to go for it, then instead of the QB sneak they went with the handoff run play on the outside which saw Etienne go for massive game ensuring the Jags had a chance to kick a field goal and win which they did.
Of course, Andy Reid is no slouch and will be a step up in competition for Pederson so this will be a really intriguing head coach matchup. Andy Reid has seen his Kansas City team finish the 2022 regular season as No. 1 in both points scored and total yards, and that's with Tyreek Hill packing his bags for Miami in the off-season, with the Chiefs scoring at least 17 in every game this season.
The Jaguars are fun to watch but the divisional round onwards is where we usually see the big teams put in big performances. Jacksonville will need to keep KC to a maximum of say 21-24 points to have a chance of winning this game but with the way Mahomes is playing I just don't see that happening and I expect Kansas City to advance to the AFC Championship.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 20-29 Chiefs
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The NFC East rivals will meet for the third time this season after Brian Daboll's Giants went to Minnesota and pulled off the upset with a 31-24 victory. Daboll, the most likely winner of head coach of the year, continues to defy the odds and will be hoping his Giants can pull off another road win this week.
When these teams met back in week 14, Eagles Quarterback Jalen Hurts threw two touchdowns and ran for another with the Eagles winning that game in a blowout 48-22 which saw them clinch their second straight playoff berth and fifth in six years.
At that moment in time Philadelphia were most people's pick to be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl however since that matchup the Giants secondary has stepped up with cornerback Adoree’ Jackson having a huge game against Minnesota. The Giants corner held Vikings All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson to seven catches for 47 yards and no touchdowns after catching six passes for 43 yards in the first two quarters.
The Giants secondary will need to step up once again need to keep the likes of Eagles receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith in check, Brown has racked up 1496 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns from 88 catches whilst Smith also went for over a thousand yards (1,196) as he hauled in 95 catch
With the Giants defence getting better and their quarterback Daniel Jones improving all the time, New York will like their chances. Jones was 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards and two touchdowns, Jones also led the Giants in rushing and finished with a combined yardage total of 379.
Giants running back Saquon Barkley will also be the obvious playmaker for the Giants, he finished the regular season with 1,312 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns, and 434 receiving yards and last week in the win versus the Vikings he had two rushing touchdowns on 9 carries for 53 yards as well as 56 receiving yards on 5 catches proving that he is one of the best running backs in the league.
Despite Barkley and Jones being capable of causing the Eagles defence headache problems, Philadelphia have playmakers of their own not just offensive but on the defensive side as well with Fletcher Cox leading the way up front and a standout secondary containing the elite CB duo of Darius Slay, and former Giant, James Bradberry. The Eagles finished the 2022 regular season with a league high 70 sacks and tied for third place in interceptions with 17 so if the Eagles can keep Jones in the pocket then I think they will be able to get pressure on Jones and this talented unit will create turnover opportunities.
The Giants will definitely take confidence in the fact that Philadelphia only secured a narrow 22-16 win against them in the regular season finale, when the visitors sat many key starters with their playoff positioning already set, however with Jalen Hurts emerging as a league MVP candidate, he completed 66.5% of his throws for 3,701 passing yards with 22 touchdowns to just six interceptions in 15 games as well as 760 yards rushing yards with a franchise-record 13 rushing touchdowns across 165 attempts (4.61 average), I expect Nick Sirianni's Eagles to be hosting the NFC title game next week.
Score Prediction: Giants 22-35 Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills will welcome the Cincinnati Bengals to Orchard Park in what will be one of the most emotional games in NFL history following the Damar Hamlin incident in week 17.
With Damar now recovering following a cardiac arrest, the Bills have been using this as motivation and rightly so with the AFC East time riding a wave of emotions to beat divisional rivals the Patriots in week 18 and they also managed to pull off a very close 34-31 victory against their other divisional rivals the Miami Dolphins last Sunday, in a game that definitely wouldn't have expected to be so close.
Cincinnati will hope to use that night as motivation as well, knowing that if they had beaten Buffalo in week 17 then they would be hosting this game. There's no denying that the Bengals would have had a better chance at home considering their regular season record was 6-1 at home compared to 6-3 on the road but they still have enough offensive firepower to beat Buffalo in the divisional round.
With wide receivers, Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to go along with running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine this offense is one of the most dynamic in football. Quarterback Joe Burrow has been instrumental himself in leading the Bengals back to the playoffs, 35 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and 4,475 passing yards in the regular season, off the back of a fairy-tale Super Bowl run last year which saw the Bengals make it to the big game before falling just short to the Rams.
Unlike LA, they’ve made it back to the playoffs and its clear to see that Zac Taylor's team have the right pieces in place to get to Arizona. Despite this, and with me being a big fan of this Cincinnati team, they didn't exactly put together an incredibly impressive performance in their 24-17 over the Ravens with Tyler Huntley and J.K. Dobbins giving the Bengals a run for their money but a 98-yard fumble recovery touchdown from Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard early in the fourth quarter ended up being the game-winning touchdown.
With both the Buffalo and Cincinnati defences giving up an expecting amount of points and yardage respectively in two favourable matchups during their first playoff games, I do think this game may be lower points wise than most people think with both teams scoring under 30. The difference maker in this one is home field, the Bills were 7-1 at home in the regular season with their lone defeat being in OT 33-30 to Minnesota.
Bills Quarterback Josh Allen threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns in that narrow home win over Miami but also threw two interceptions and fumbled three times, losing one of them. The Bills can't afford to lose the turnover battle to a team of Cincy's quality if they want to advance to the AFC Championship game but its very rare that a quarterback of Josh Allen’s calibre will make similar mistakes in back to back games.
I believe it will be a one score win either way but at the time of writing this, I think Josh Allen will clean up his game and make less mistakes versus the Bengals and I can see the Bills defence making more key plays than Cincinnati’s to lead Buffalo to victory meaning that we’ll see Sean McDermott’s team in the AFC Championship game next week.
Score Prediction: Bengals 23-27 Bills
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
Arguably the two best defences in the NFL will go head to head in a highly anticipated matchup after the 49ers rallied in the second half versus the Seahawks as they went from 17-16 down to 23-41 winners against their divisional rivals, whilst the Cowboys embarrassed Tom Brady's Buccaneers by winning 31-14 on the road.
The 49ers defence tied for a league lead 20 interceptions in the regular season, compared to Dallas who finished tied in 4th with 16 in the regular season, with both teams getting 1 interception in their respective super wild card wins. The Niners also finished in 11th in sacks with a respectable 44 in the regular season, and 3 against Geno Smith in the win over Seattle, whilst Dan Quinn's defensive unit are formidable as Dallas got to the quarterback with 54 sacks, tied for 3rd during the regular season and got 2 sacks in Monday night’s win over Tampa Bay.
Offensively for San Francisco, the legend of Quarterback Brock Purdy continues to grow with the quarterback throwing for 332 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, as well as one rushing, in the win over Seattle. Purdy became the first rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw and run for a touchdown in his first career playoff start also became the first rookie quarterback with four total touchdowns in a postseason game.
I'm all aboard the Purdy hype train, as he has slotted in perfectly to Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system and there's no denying that he's reaping the rewards of playing with star receiver Deebo Samuel and one of the best running backs in the NFL in Christian McCaffrey. Deebo had 133 receiving yards and a touchdown with 32 on the ground and then we have McCaffrey who had 119 rushing yards on 15 carries as well as 17 receiving yards on 2 catches with one rushing TD.
Combing those two with the likes of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and star tight end George Kittle who has also built up fantastic chemistry report Purdy has seen the Niners offense continue to roll and arguably more intimidating for opposing defences. Kittle himself ended up recording one or more touchdowns in five consecutive games for the first time in his career following a two touchdown performance in week 18 versus Arizona and Kittle, 5,254 yards, also surpassed Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce, 5,236. for the third-most receiving yards by a tight end in his first six seasons.
I think everyone will agree that San Francisco is the most complete team in the league and a lot of people's pick to win the Super Bowl in Arizona, and rightly so, however in the NFL nothing is for certain and Dallas' defence deserve to be talked about in the same vein as the Niners defence and even in terms of making the same game changing impact as the 49ers offense.
Cowboys line-backer Micah Parsons is one of the best defensive players in the league and fellow linebacker Leighton Vander Esch is a key part of the Dallas defence. Vander Esch returned in last night's win over Tampa Bay and let's not also forget star corner Travon Diggs in the Dallas secondary so this defence is more than equipped to go toe to toe with San Fran.
Dallas also has offensive playmakers of their own to with star receiver CeeDee Lamb going along with running backs Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliot. They also have tight end Dalton Schultz who has been a more prominent part of the offense since Dark returned as QB of this team and had two touchdowns last night on 7 catches with 95 receiving yards. When you consider that they also have receivers like Michael Gallup, Noah Brown, late season addition TY Hilton and rookie Tight End Jake Ferguson, the Cowboys are really strong.
The turnover battle in this game will be key considering how prolific the offenses are and how strong both defences can be. For Dallas, Dak Prescott has come under some criticism as he has turned the ball over more than any QB in the league since returning from injury and prior to the Tampa Bay game he had 14 interceptions in his last 11 games.
However I prefer to focus on the positives which is the fact the Dallas went 8-4 since his return with him completing 67.7% of his passes for 2,726 yards with 23 touchdowns and most importantly for the Cowboys, last night his sat line was 25/33 passes completed with 4 passing touchdowns and 305 passing yards. In the process he snapped a 7 game interception streak and it really does seem that the Cowboys are getting hot at the right time. I'm backing the Cowboys to continue to make noise in the playoffs and pull off the upset at Levi's Stadium.
Score Prediction: 49ers 26-30 Cowboys
