Contingency Plan’s - What next for Green Bay?
What do the Packers have planned with the rising question of WHO will play Quarterback in Green Bay next year, Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love?
On a cold night in Green Bay Week 18 the Packers were one win away from making the playoffs against the Detroit Lions who had just missed a playoffs birth of their own with a Seattle win earlier in the day knocking them out. The Packers needed to win to get in, and the Lions were wanting to play spoiler to their long-time division foe. The teams fought back and forth, and late in the fourth quarter the Lions lead 20-16 and were trying to send their rival home for the year. With less than 4 minutes left in the game, Aaron Rodgers lined up under center with what could be his final snaps as a Green Bay Packer. And as a flash back when another Packers Quarterback lined up under center for possibly the last time, time repeated itself. Aaron Rodgers threw the ball into the cold Green Bay sky and Detroit Safety Kerby Joseph picked the ball out of the sky possibly putting an end to the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay. Much like Brett Favre, who 15 years before sent the Packers home by throwing the football into the Cold Lambeau air and into the arms of New York Giants cornerback Corey Webster, that would go on to give the Giants a Super Bowl berth, and the win. Both quarterbacks ended their last possible drives as Packers with the same expression of anger, and it’s over, leaving Lambeau Field and its loyal fans with a loss to end each era of the legendary Hall of Fame quarterbacks.
The game ended and Detroit rookie wide receiver Jameson Williams approached Rodgers and asked if they could trade jerseys. The cameras caught Rodgers saying to Williams that “He was going to hold on to this one.” and made his way to the locker room. With Randall Cobb in tow, Rodgers and his best friend left the hallowed grounds of Lambeau Field, hinting that this could be the last time either would be in a Green Bay Packer uniform going forward, or for the rest of time.
The Packers were eliminated from the playoffs, missing the tournament for the first time since Head Coach Matt LaFleur took over before the 2019 season. And with the season ending, speculation immediately began to ensue from fans, media reporters, and predictably NFL front offices. What would happen to Aaron Rodgers? Would he retire? Would he pursue the talks of a couple years ago and request to be traded to a different team? Would he even want to return? What about Jordan Love? Would he be next in line to try to continue the Packers legacy of legendary Quarterback play? Would he request to be traded? Everyone has their plans for the Packers...
The Packers too will have a plan, and these are the two plans Green Bay could go with whether the 18 year legend and household name Aaron Rodgers claims his spot in the huddle in Green Bay once again, or if the Packers decide to give the young unproven quarterback Jordan Love, the Quarterback they traded up for in the draft to eventually replace Rodgers the reigns as leader of the Pack.
These are their contingency plans:
Plan A: Aaron Rodgers
The Packers and Rodgers decide to meet in the middle and the Quarterback returns to Green Bay, what do the Packers do moving forward?
The Packers have a mix of free agents that impact whether Rodgers would stay or not.
Packers Notable Free Agents 2023:
S Adrian Amos, WR Randall Cobb, DE Dean Lowry, K Mason Crosby, WR Allen Lazard, TE Robert Tonyan Jr, DE Jarran Reed, TE Marcedes Lewis, CB/KR Keisean Nixon, and T Yosh Nijman
Players too move OFF from (If Rodgers stays):
Adrian Amos
Amos has an average market value of 6.9 million, taking up almost half of Green Bay’s remaining available cap space in 2023. Although Amos gave Green Bay stability in the back end of the defense for four seasons playing over 98% of the team’s defensive snaps, safety isn’t the positional investment Green Bay needs to make to take the team to the next level if Rodgers stays.
Dean Lowry
Lowry’s production in the defense is in question. After an extension in 2019 and restructuring in ’21 and ‘22, Lowry was paid $8.4 Million in 2022 for 43 Combined Tackles, 1 TFL, 5 QB Hits, and .5 sack. With the late season rise of DE Devonte Wyatt, Green Bay has an easy cap friendly replacement to replace that menial production to let Lowry walk.
Yosh Nijman
Nijman proved to be a good substitute when needed, playing 69% of the offensive snaps in 2022 but as a starter he lacked consistency, giving up 5 sacks and 10 penalties and getting beat by opposing defensive lineman at the jump. In the mentioned loss to Detroit above, Nijman had to be replaced by rookie standout Zac Tom at right tackle after not being able to handle the pass rush of rookie and number 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson. With Bakhtiari on roster and recently extending all-purpose lineman Elgton Jenkins, replacing Nijman with Tom saves over $2.3 million in cap space with Tom on his rookie Deal and Nijman having an $3.2 Million average annual salary.
Robert Tonyan Jr.
Tonyan has not been a third down or redzone target like he once was since tearing his ACL 2 years ago, and with an estimated $5 Million AAV Annual Salary, the Packers have a chance to replace him with a more productive player in the heavy tight end class in this year’s draft.
Allen Lazard*
Lazard brings an AAV of $12.5 Million, while asking for approximately $15 Million per year. With the emergence of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and the quiet mumblings of last string Samori Toure being a future producer in the pass game, Lazard’s only impact late last season was in the run game as a blocker which can be coached to the newly acquired receivers saving the Packers cap space.
Jarran Reed
Reed brought a presence to the Packers’ defensive line in ’22, recording 52 Combined Tackles, 5 TFL, and 2.5 Sacks. But unless Green Bay plans on bringing him back on another deal similar to his ’22 contract ($3.25 Million for one year) Green Bay can look to T.J. Slayton and Devonte Wyatt to replace him on the Packers’ defensive line.
Players to consider resigning (If Rodgers Stays)
Randall Cobb
Cobb was the reliable 3rd down target for Rodgers other than Lazard in ’22 and would be a key factor in Rodgers playing in Green Bay in 2023. Cobb signing a 1-year deal to stay with Rodgers would benefit Rodgers, the Packers offense, and the young Packer Wide Receiver room.
Marcedes Lewis
Rodgers has persistently said that Lewis was a key cog not just from a football standpoint, but from leadership and veteran standpoint in the Packers locker room. Rodgers
wants Lewis to follow him no matter where he goes, so another 1-year deal to stay in Green Bay can be beneficial to the Packers locker room and run game, as Lewis was a key blocker on the edge for running backs Aaron Jones, and A.J. Dillon.
Mason Crosby
Another mainstay in the Rodgers era, both players have been pivotal in each other’s career, and Rodgers will want the Packers all-time leading scorer on the team to assure the win if the game comes down to the final seconds. Crosby will more than likely be willing to take a team friendly deal to stay in Green Bay as well as GM Brian Gutekunst pointing out the team’s goal to assure the resigning of the long time Packer veteran.
Allen Lazard*
Although the Packers seen the emergence of rookie’s Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in the Packers passing game, Rodgers will want his OTHER reliable target in Lazard to throw to in 2023. Even though the team has been working on restructurings for other members of the team to save and make cap space, the money will have to be right for both sides for this resigning to happen.
2023 NFL Draft Targets (w/ Rodgers)
Peter Skoronski
The Packers offensive line is pivotal to the team’s success going into this coming year, with David Bahktiari, Elgton Jenkins, Zac Tom, and Josh Myers. The Packers are missing just one more piece to have an incredible offensive line unit, and the versatile Skoronski can be there to play guard and tackle if injuries just so happen to hit the unit.
Michael Mayer
Rodgers has always been at the top of his game when having a capable receiving tight end, (Jermichael Finley, healthy Robert Tonyan.) In the top-heavy tight end class of the 2023 NFL draft, Green Bay has the chance to get the arguable best tight end in the class and secure themselves a pass catching tight end to go with the blocking style tight ends of Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis, and the possible resigning of ‘Big Dog’ Marcedes Lewis.
Brian Branch
Adrian Amos is likely to depart, and the Packers are left with Darnell Savage, Innis Gaines, Tariq Carpenter, and Vernon Scott in the deep secondary. Branch adds versatility, and ability to play in the box, play deep zone and matchup in the slot alongside the stable of corners Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, and a returning Eric Stokes.
Free Agents Interests
Green Bay hardly dives into the free agency market, and when they do, they are not huge splashes like fans, and media experts expect and want them to be. But, although these moves are not groundbreaking, they are smart and team pliable when it comes to depth and experience on the field. (ex. Adrian Amos, Preston Smith, Marcedes Lewis).
George Fant
A cheap option to replace Nijman at right tackle and keep Jenkins on the left side with Bakhtiari and keeping Tom on the inside as well. Fant dealt with a nagging knee injury in 2022 that slowed down his season, but after playing over 90% of the Jet’s offensive snaps the last three years, Fant can be a help in securing the line if Green Bay decides to not go offensive linemen in the first round.
Zach Allen
This would be Green Bay’s ‘Splash’ into the free agency market. Dean Lowry did not play to expectation and will be a free agent, and the Packers need another down lineman to be a presence in the run game, as well as add some kind of pass rush to the defense to go with Kenny Clark, and the promising first round pick who got a late start to his season Devonte Wyatt. Paired along side either Preston Smith, or the returning and motivated Rashaan Gary on the edge, the Packers could solidify their front 7 with an addition of Allen who was second on the Cardinals last year in sacks.
Kareem Jackson
Adding the veteran safety will help Packers fans sleep at night knowing someone capable is patrolling the back halves of the field if the Packers decide not to go Branch in the first round. Jackson could also be the bridge/mentor to any other safeties brought in this year’s class or if Branch does get picked by Green Bay in Round 1.
Recap:
If the longtime quarterback of the Packers returns, the Packers will be looking to build on the promise of the young wide receiver room as well as the duo of running backs they have in the backfield lead by the offensive line unit that on paper has the potential to be top 5 barring any injuries. On the defensive side, the backfield may look a little different at safety but with a returning Gary to the pass rush, and pro bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander still locking down teams’ top receivers, Aaron Rodgers could return to his normal self and bring Green Bay back in the right direction and return to the NFC playoff picture.
Plan B: Jordan Love
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers part ways and Jordan Love is now the starting QB for the Packers going into 2023.
The Packers could look to shift things into the new generation of Packers football, moving on from older aging players and dipping into the young and new form of team building by putting players that make plays on the field.
2023 Free Agents
Players to move off from:
Dean Lowry
His play was underachieving in 2022, and his presence in the pass rush was non-existent enough to not warrant an extension going forward.
Randall Cobb
An obvious move for a team looking to bring the new generation of players in. Although Cobb would bring a veteran presence to the locker room, the team will not want to spend the cap space on an aging veteran receiver, who is prone to injuries throughout the season.
Mercedes Lewis
Lewis brought the leadership to the locker room but on the field Green Bay has Josiah Deguara and Ryan Davis to fill in as the blocking tight end in the Packers offense. The Packers will want to move off the 38-year-old veteran.
Mason Crosby
Another vet the Packers can move off from. Although Crosby has been a consistent part of the Packers for the last 16 years, Crosby is aging and the Packers can find a replacement in the ever flowing pool of Free Agent kickers.
Yosh Nijman
The Packers had stability from rookie Zac Tom in 2022, and the Packers have an easy replacement for tackle on both sides, just as they used Nijman last year. Tom is able to play both tackle and guard spots and with Tom on his rookie deal as a 4th round draft pick, and the Packers won’t have to use their cap space to keep Nijman around.
Allen Lazard
Money being the factor here, the Packers will not want to spend the cap, and Loves chemistry with the younger receivers showed the Packers can move off the 5th year receiver and not have any hiccups.
Players to Consider Keeping
Adrian Amos
Not having to spend cap space on targets to keep Rodgers happy, the Packers could afford to play with the estimated AAV of Amos at 6.8 million, and keeping the backend of the Defense secure for more years to come. Amos was ranked 8th in safety play last year.
Jarran Reed
Reed gave the Packers stability on the defensive line in both the passing and rushing defense and gives the Packers depth on the defensive line to keep players fresh from play to play. Another similar contract to the 1 year deal he signed previously can make both sides happy.
Robert Tonyan Jr.
Tonyan slowly worked his way back from his ACL injury in 2021, and an experienced Tight End who led the league in touchdown receptions by a tight end 3 years ago, Tonyan provides a security blanket for Love to throw to in the offense.
NFL Draft Targets (w/ Love):
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The Packers add another weapon to throw to, giving Jordan Love an arsenal of receivers, as well as the two running backs behind them. The Packers offense should have no issues moving the ball in 2023.
Lukas Van Ness
Defensive end was the weakness in the Packers defense last year and adding the potential of Van Ness gives the Packers depth and youth at the position with Wyatt, Slaton, and Ford already on the roster. Van Ness doesn’t have the ideal experience when it comes to playing time in college, but the upside potential of Van Ness is huge.
Dalton Kincaid
Short a tight end with moving on from Lewis in a heavy tight end usage system, the Packers can get a big bodied tight end as a pass catcher and can assist in the run game as well. Kincaid would also make a good duo with a possibly resigned Tonyan. The tight end from Utah has had a steady rise in draft boards and is in conversation as TE1 in this year’s draft.
Free Agent Interests (w/ Love):
Roger Saffold
Much like the signing of Jahri Evans in 2017, Saffold who is 34 years old can add depth and experience on the offensive line to aid in the run game as well as takeoff pressure from Love and pass game and young receivers throughout the season.
Parris Campbell
With Cobb and Lazard on the move, Campbell adds depth to the Packers receiving room without having to break the bank. Campbell had 57 receptions for 570 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2022 for the Colts which can be a perfect replacement for Cobb and Lazard who each had 1 and 6 touchdowns in 2022. Campbell would be a cap friendly deal with an AAV of 2.5 million with a chance to get more targets in the Packers offense.
Hasaan Ridgeway
Like previously, these moves are for depth and experience on the field. The move would give a reliable backup to Kenny Clark, and with the multiple fronts used by Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry, Ridgeway adds a true defensive tackle position to pair with Clark instead of using ends between the tackles.
Recap:
If Green Bay decides to move forward with their 2020 first round draft pick and apparent next in line, Green Bay simply needs to add pieces to the team to help Jordan Love succeed. Another weapon to throw to, another piece of the defense to give the ball back to the offense. From what we have seen in 2022 Love has the potential to do good things in Green Bay, but much like his predecessor in the regime before, it will be up to the Packers front office to give him the tools for success in this league.
Regardless of who is at the helm of the Packers quarterback in 2023, Packer fans will be looking at last season as an anomaly and look forward to what the upcoming season will bring. Green Bay has the 13th highest cap space in the league, and a top 20 draft pick with potentially another one incoming from the impending decision on what Rodgers and the Packers choose to do going forward. With draft capital and a little bit of cap space, the Green Bay Packers, whether its with Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love, will be looking to be right back in the playoff hunt on