Derek Carr joins the Saints. A good move for New Orleans?
The first quarterback domino has fallen this offseason and it’s a big one. Derek Carr has joined the New Orleans Saints on a four-year $150 million deal, $100 million of which is guaranteed. Since Las Vegas announced Carr would be leaving the Raiders, after nine years at quarterback for them, he has been one of the most desired quarterbacks in free agency. He met with the Jets and the Panthers but it was the first team he spoke to, the New Orleans Saints, that he has ended up picking.
I always felt that New Orleans was the most likely destination for Carr. Saints head coach Dennis Allen was Carr’s first head coach when he entered the NFL in 2014 and despite Allen only lasting four games that season, before being fired after a 0-4 start, the two have remained close. The Saints were one of many teams who were openly hunting for a new starting quarterback, with Andy Dalton entering free agency this year and Jameis Winston likely to be released, and Carr was one of the top available QBs on the market. The only question was whether the Saints would be able to afford a player like Derek Carr due to their severe lack of cap space. As ever though, the Saints have restructured some contracts and found a way. With a 7-10 record and a third spot finish in the NFC South, the Saints were not close to being contenders in 2022. So, does the arrival of Derek Carr change things for New Orleans?
For starters, just the fact that they have given such a lucrative deal to a veteran quarterback shows that the Saints have no interest in rebuilding. They intend to be competitive in 2023 and clearly believe that the arrival of Carr will enable them to do this, but is this really the case? There are some interesting offensive weapons in New Orleans for Derek Carr to work with next season. Alvin Kamara is still one of the top receiving backs in the league and he will only be helped by the arrival of Carr. I could see the two of them striking up a very productive relationship, barring any possible suspension for Kamara next season. The Saints also have some very promising young pass catchers in Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson and a certain Chris Olave. Olave had an outstanding rookie season and showed what he is capable of despite the less than scintillating quarterback play behind him. With the upgrade of Derek Carr, Olave really could have a huge 2023 season. What the arrival of Carr means for Michael Thomas though is more uncertain.
The 2019 offensive player of the year has battled injuries the last three seasons and as he will be guaranteed a $31.755 million roster bonus for 2024 if he is still on the Saints’ roster by the third week of the 2023 season, now is surely the time for New Orleans to part ways with him. Maybe not though. Thomas has already expressed on social media his excitement about the arrival of Carr, which is odd if he’s not expecting to play with him next season, and reportedly the Saints haven’t completely closed the door on him remaining with the team. As I have already mentioned, clearly the Saints have no interest in a rebuild, so if they believe Thomas can still contribute then they would not hesitate in keeping him. If he does move on though, expect the Saints to bring in a new receiver for Carr in either free agency or the draft.
So, was Andy Dalton really the reason that the Saints slumped to 7-10 last season? Not if you just look at the stats. Dalton finished 1st in the league in percentage of throws on target and 8th in passing success rate. Derek Carr was 19th and 27th in these measures. Andy Dalton ended the season with a quarterback rating of 95.2 compared with Carr’s rating of 86.3. Is Carr even an upgrade then? Well, yes he is. Dalton was efficient last season but he failed to truly ignite the offense. They finished 22nd in points scored in the league and a lowly 26th in passing attempts. Carr struggled last season in Josh McDaniels’ scheme but if you look at what he has done over his career then he has a significantly higher ceiling than Dalton and should get a lot more out of this Saints offense. Just the season before McDaniels’ arrival, Carr finished 5th in the league in terms of passing yards and 4th in completions. This Saints team will surely finish higher than the 22nd ranked points scoring offense next season.
If Carr does elevate their offense, then just how good could the Saints be next year? In 2022, they had the ninth ranked defense in terms of points allowed and sixth in yards allowed so that would suggest that the defensive side of the ball is not a major problem for them. Carr has never played in a top 20 ranked defense in points allowed, and only once did his defense finish top 15 in yards allowed, so he will be excited by the possibility of how far he could take a team with a decent defense. That could very well be to a divisional title. At this moment in time, the Saints are the favourites for the NFC South. The division was a mess last season with the Buccaneers taking the title despite having a losing record. They have now lost Tom Brady and currently have Kyle Trask as their starting quarterback while the other starting quarterbacks in the division are currently Sam Darnold and Desmond Ridder. Derek Carr is clearly a cut above anything else in the division when it comes to the most important position in the game, although this could always change by the start of the season. Also aiding Carr’s chances of having success this season, is the fact he is moving from a very strong AFC to an NFC that is currently wide open. The Eagles were outstanding last season, and the Niners will be there again if they can keep a quarterback fit, but apart from those teams, the conference is ripe for an underperforming team in 2022 to turn it around and possibly make the Superbowl. Could the Saints be that team?
There is one huge question mark hanging over the Saints. Despite being a major reason why they were able to recruit Derek Carr, Dennis Allen failed to impress in his first season in charge of the Saints and when you include his spell with the Raiders, his 15-38 record as a head coach is not one that inspires confidence. Without a doubt, Allen needs to deliver this season or he may not be back for 2024. Now he has an experienced and extremely capable quarterback to work with, especially one that he knows so well, he has no excuses. There is still more work that needs to be done on the team this offseason, especially with four starting defensive players entering free agency, but it is clear that next season this organisation is going to be expecting a return to the postseason for the first time since Drew Brees retired. I think, with the arrival of Derek Carr, that is a reasonable expectation for Saints fans, but I would voice a word of caution to anybody who thinks that he will automatically turn them into contenders for the Lombardi trophy. He is a very good quarterback but not necessarily a great one.