Picking the result of one game in the NFL is difficult. Attempting to pick the results of all 272 games before the season has even started is an exercise in futility. Yet, that is exactly what I have done. “Why?”, I hear you ask. Partly because I really miss football and partly because I decided that this would be the best way to come up with my win-loss projections for each team. The idea is that such a method will inherently take into account strength of schedule, as well as reducing the effect of pre-season optimism. The beautiful thing about this moment, before the season starts, is that hope is abundant and dreams are yet to be quashed. The harshness of reality is that a tough season awaits many teams and in five months’ time many will have a losing record etched beside their name. By predicting the result of every game, I hope to come up with records that accurately convey how I feel about each of the 32 teams going onto this new season.

So, let’s have a look at the NFC.

NFC East

The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC last year because they had the best roster in the conference. There have been some changes over the offseason, but they still have one of the very best rosters in the conference. They have possibly the best offensive line in the entire league, one of the very best receiver tandems in the league with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, and in Jalen Hurts they have undoubtedly the best quarterback in the NFC. As mentioned though, there have been changes to the NFC winning roster. Miles Sanders has left but after being replaced by D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny, the running back room still has immense depth. On the defensive side of the ball, five starters have left, Javon Hargrave, T.J. Edwards, Kyzir White, Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner Johnson, but it could have been worse. Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox and James Bradberry were also out of contract while it looked like Darius Slay would leave too, yet all four have resigned for 2023. These four with Hasaan Reddick still make up the basis for a very strong defence that will be further complemented with a very exciting draft class headed by the ninth overall pick, Jalen Carter.

The biggest changes to the Eagles happened to the coaching staff. Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon are now head coaches of the Colts and the Cardinals respectively and while the promotion of Brian Johnson to the OC could be a relatively seamless transition, the arrival of Sean Desai, a former DC with the Bears, paired with the departure of those five starters, makes their defense a much bigger unknown for the upcoming season. How Desai integrates the rookies and new signings, such as Terrell Edmunds, into this defense, while implementing his vision for this unit, will go a long way to determining how successful this Eagles team will be. I still see them as the team to beat in the NFC though and they should again be NFC East champions.

The Cowboys are another team that, on paper, has one of the strongest rosters in the NFC. Brandin Cooks has joined Ceedee Lamb and Tony Pollard on the offense and Zack Martin has signed a new contract to lead one of the best offensive lines in the league for another season. They also have one of the league’s best defenses led by a contender for the best defensive player in the league in Micah Parsons. So, why am I not higher on the Cowboys this season?

One reason is the quarterback and his 2-4 record in the playoffs. With Dak Prescott leading this team, they have made a habit of reaching the postseason but then not hanging around there very long and I don’t see enough changes in this team to make me think anything will be different this year. In fact, I have them winning less games than last season due to some of the changes they have made. I do see Tony Pollard having a big season but the lack of depth behind him at running back is concerning. Elsewhere, while Brandin Cooks is a much-needed extra receiving option for Dak, the loss of Dalton Schultz removes one option and the starting tight end in Dallas is now *checks notes* Jake Ferguson. Then, there is the change at offensive coordinator. Kellen Moore was the scapegoat for last season’s lack of postseason success, despite the Cowboys having the third best offense by points scored, and Mike McCarthy is now taking over play calling duties. I can’t see this change to an already productive offense being the catalyst that makes the Cowboys Super Bowl contenders. It will be another competitive season for Dallas, but it will not be one where there will be competing for that ultimate prize.

The New York Giants surprised everybody last year by making the playoffs with a 9-7-1 record and then defeating the Vikings in the wildcard round. I have their win total slightly down on last year, but this is no criticism of the team. They could easily exceed my expectations and their decreased win total is more to do with their tough 2023 schedule than what the team did in the offseason.

I am a fan of the moves the Giants made over the summer. There were a severe lack of receiving options on this team last season but with the arrival of tight end Darren Waller, Daniel Jones has a new number one target. The arrival of third round pick Jalin Hyatt to the wide receiver room also gives Jones a new downfield threat and so the offense should be better this season. Possibly the biggest signing of the offseason for them though was getting Saquan Barkley to sign a new one-year contract and he should again be the Giants’ main threat. On the other side of the ball, Wink Martindale’s defense should be formidable this season. Their defensive line of A’Shawn Robinson, Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence is formidable and with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari rushing the passer, any quarterback lining up against this defense in 2023 will be under a lot of pressure.

This year will be head coach Brian Daboll’s second season in charge and even if their win total goes down, I expect this team to improve on their performances from last year. There will not be many teams that will be getting an easy game from the Giants in 2023.

There are a lot of unknowns surrounding the Washington Commanders this season, the biggest one being their starting quarterback, Sam Howell. Howell has just the one NFL game under his belt, the week 18 victory over the Cowboys, but Ron Rivera saw enough in that game and this summer to announce him as the week one starter over Jacoby Brissett. Promising performances in the preseason have Commanders fans excited about what he could bring the team, but he is still unproven in the league and it is a lot to ask for him to hit the road running. He does though have a solid receiving corps to help him out in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel and a decent running back duo in Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. Their defense, a top ten defense in the league last year, should be good again this season and keep them in games but ultimately, I think it will be an inconsistent season for Washington.

As well as there being question marks over the team’s long-term future at the quarterback position, there are questions marks over the long-term future at the head coach position. Ron Rivera is

entering his fourth season in charge at Washington and he has an uninspiring 22-27-1 record over that time. Unless there is a drastic change in the team’s fortunes this year, it seems unlikely that Rivera will be around after this season and so 2023 could be a transitional year for the team as they figure out what they have before a real push by the new ownership team in 2024. If Sam Howell can establish himself as the franchise quarterback going forward, then that could be enough for 2023 to be a success for the Commanders. Regardless though, 2024 will be a much bigger season for them.

NFC North

After starting last season 1-6, the Lions ended the season 8-2 to achieve their first season with a winning record since 2017. I fully expect them to build on that momentum and this year achieve their first divisional title since 1993. It is on offense where they excelled last season, finishing with a top 5 offense on points scored, and it is on offense where I expect them to excel again this season. The focus point of this offense will again be Amon-Ra St. Brown, but he is far from the only talent in this team. Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs is a very exciting addition to the roster, and I expect the positionless player to have an enormous impact in his rookie season. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is also a very intriguing prospect, as will Jameson Williams be when he comes back from his suspension. The key to this offense though is their formidable offensive line and their offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, who the Lions managed to keep hold of this offseason. When protected and in a quarterback friendly system, Jared Goff can be a very productive quarterback, as shown in 2018 with the Rams, and with the Lions that is precisely what he has got.

The Lions’ defense was the problem for the team last season, but they should be a lot better in the department after some shrewd recruitment. Cam Sutton and Chauncey Gardner Johnson have come in to boost the secondary and, after taking Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick, they picked up Jack Campbell and Brian Branch. Add in the fact that I expect Aidan Hutchinson to be even more dominating in his second season, and I think the Detroit Lions’ defense will be a much tougher proposition this year.

The reigning NFC North champions finished last season with a 13-4 record, although, as eleven of those wins were by one score, many questioned whether they were as good as their record suggested. Regardless of how good the 2022 Vikings actually were, the 2023 team looks weaker.

On defense, Dalvin Tomlison, Zadarius Smith, Eric Kendricks and Patrick Petersen have left and while the signings of Byron Murphy and Marcus Davenport help to mitigate these loses, overall, the Vikings look weaker on this side of the ball. On the offense, Dalvin Cook has joined the Jets, leaving Alexander Mattison to step up as the team’s starting running back. While the team have been bullish about Mattison, this is a downgrade in this department. The offense should still be good this season though. Veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen also departed but with the arrival of first round draft pick Jordan Addison to pair up with Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson, Kirk Cousins will have plenty of options and the passing game will be a strength for this team. They may not defend their NFC North title this year, but they should still be competitive.

The Aaron Rodgers era is over in Green Bay and the Jordan Love one is about to begin. There is optimism amongst Packers fans that the future can be bright with their 24-year-old quarterback and

his young receiving corps of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed and it may be. I do not believe it will be this season though.

To expect Jordan Love to come in and automatically have this team challenging for a division title is unrealistic. Last season, the Packers finished with an 8-9 record with a four-time league MVP under centre and I do not see how replacing Rodgers with a young quarterback, that has just the one career start, will lead to an immediate improvement for this team. That’s not to say Love won’t be a success in Green Bay but this season will be a learning one for him and will inevitably contain both ups and downs. Away from the quarterback position, the Packers also lost the experience of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan from the offense and they will be relying on rookies Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave to step up and replace them. This is now an offense with a lot of promise, but it won’t be fully realised this year. On the defensive side of the ball, there is talent but the defense needs to step up after last season being ranked in the bottom half in terms of points allowed. Overall, I expect this team to be more of a transitional year in Green Bay than a successful one.

There is a great deal of optimism and hype surrounding the Bears heading into the upcoming season and a lot of it surrounds their third-year quarterback. This offseason, the Bears have shown their faith in Justin Fields being their franchise quarterback. Owning the first overall pick, in a draft containing three top prospects at quarterback, they decided to not only trade the pick to Carolina but also obtain a top new weapon for Fields as part of the trade. There is no doubt that the acquisition of DJ Moore majorly upgrades a receiving unit that also contains Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney, but the question is whether Fields has developed enough as a passer to get the most out of his new receiver. Last year, he only threw for 2242 yards, averaging 149.5 yards a game, the lowest amount for a starting quarterback. Over the offseason, he has bullishly spoken about his improvement as a passer and how he is aiming for 4000 yards this year, but I still have major concerns with his accuracy. He was bottom of the league amongst starting quarterbacks last season in accuracy, with an accuracy rate of 60.4%, and I cannot see that having improved enough for him to become a prolific passer in this league. Where Fields is prolific though is on the ground and I do expect him to be devastating again with his legs.

While the majority of offseason focus has been on Fields and his offense, it is on defense where the Bears need to show the most improvement. Last season, they finished dead last in points allowed and Matt Eberflus, a former defensive coordinator turned head coach, is under a lot of pressure to turn this unit around. They spent big this season in an effort to do this, signing Tremaine Edmunds, TJ Edwards and Yannick Ngakoue, but this unit does still seem to be lacking in talent.

On both sides of the ball, the Bears have improved and, as a result, I have them doubling the number of wins they achieved last season. This is not a roster or quarterback though that is yet capable of challenging in the NFC.

NFC South

Since Drew Brees retired in 2021, the Saints have struggled to find a franchise quarterback to replace him. This season, they may have got their man with former Raider’s QB Derek Carr. He may not be the most exciting of names but he is a proven starter in this league and he will upgrade an offense that finished last season ranked 22nd in points scored. He has an exciting number of weapons to use on this offense, notably second-year receiver Chris Olave, who I think is heading for a very big

season. Rashid Shaheed and tight end Juwan Johnson are two more exciting young options for Carr and with running backs Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams also on the roster, this is a very well-balanced offense.

The defense has seen a lot of upheaval this season with Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, Kaden Ellis and Shy Tuttle departing but they still have players such as Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, Pete Werner, Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye. They also used their first two draft picks on defense, so I fully expect the Saints to have a top-ten defense once again.

There is some pressure on head coach Dennis Allen, but I have them as the best team in a weak NFC South. The division title is heading to New Orleans.

There is a lot of excitement in Atlanta ahead of this season and a lot of that excitement is around Bijan Robinson. The rookie running back is one of the most exciting talents to enter the NFL in years and he is expected to have a huge and immediate impact on this team. He joins other exciting young weapons on this offense Drake London and Kyle Pitts, and it is up to Arthur Smith to get the most out of them this season. A lot has been expected from the former Titans OC’s offense but the last two years it has disappointed as the team stumbled to two 7-10 records. One reason for this has been the lack of a functional quarterback with first Matt Ryan and then Marcus Mariota starting the season under centre. This year, it’s Desmond Ridder’s turn. Taking over the starting job for the last four games of last season, Ridder had a steady start. While he only threw for 708 yards and 2 touchdowns, he also threw zero interceptions and so the Falcons decided to not pursue another quarterback this offseason. Now, with an entire offseason preparing as the starter, the Falcons are hoping Ridder can build on his performances at the end of last year.

Realistically, I think the Falcons will be satisfied if he can be a safer quarterback than Mariota and they will not be asking him to do too much. The focus of this offense will be the running game and they will be looking at Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier to get the chains moving. The Falcons also needed to improve their defense this offseason and they have spent to do so. Jessie Bates III, Calais Campbell, David Onyemata and Kaden Elliss have all arrived so they should be more formidable in this area.

Despite these improvements, I have the Falcons missing the playoffs for the third year in a row under Arthur Smith. The defense, while improved, is not elite and while it will be fun to watch Bijan Robinson in this offense, ultimately, I think having Desmond Ridder at quarterback will be a limiting factor for the unit.

Tom Brady has retired and the time of the Buccs being Super Bowl challengers is over for now. Realistically, it was over last season. They may have made the playoffs by winning the NFC South but they did so with a losing record and a dire offense that was ranked 25th in points scored. Even though Brady was in decline last year, replacing the seven-time Super Bowl winner with Baker Mayfield is a massive downgrade and is a not a long-term solution. This might be the season that precedes a massive tear down as the Buccaneers look to rebuild.

It is looking more and more unlikely that star wide receiver Mike Evans will sign a new contract and so this could be his last season in Tampa Bay. He may not even see out the year with the possibility of the Buccaneers trading him firmly on the table. They may even look to trade their other star receiver, Chris Godwin, as they look to clear cap space ahead of what will inevitably be a major offseason for

them next year. They do still have some talent on defense, such as Lavonte David, Devin White and Shaq Barrett, so they could give some teams a tough game but, I cannot see this being a fun season for Buccs fans.

The two most important members of a franchise are the quarterback and head coach. Over the offseason, the Carolina Panthers made moves that they will hope will settle these positions for them for years to come. First, they brought in Frank Reich as head coach and then they traded up to the first overall pick in the draft to select Bryce Young as their quarterback. The future could be bright in Carolina but do not expect to see success this season. One of the prices for moving up to take Young was sending star receiver DJ Moore to the Bears and so free agent signing Adam Thielen is likely to be Young’s number one target this season. The Panthers also brought in DJ Chark and Hayden Hurst as weapons for their rookie quarterback, as well as drafting rookie receiver Jonathan Mingo, but this is still an underwhelming receiving unit for their rookie quarterback. The addition of Miles Sanders may be the move that most helps take the pressure of their rookie quarterback as he will automatically improve the running game.

The Panthers have some talent on defense in Brian Burns, Justin Houston and Derrick Brown but it is no more than an average unit and is not built to carry this team. If Bryce Young can elevate this offense from the off, then this team may be more successful than I’m expecting, but realistically this is another team that will be happy if they see signs that their rookie quarterback is the franchise quarterback they are hoping for.

NFC West:

Last year, nobody had high expectations for the Seattle Seahawks with Russell Wilson heading to Denver and Geno Smith taking over as the team’s quarterback. 4282 passing yards, 30 touchdowns and one comeback player of the year award later, I am very high on Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks for 2023. If Geno can get anywhere near his 2022 levels of production, this Seahawks offense will be one of the most explosive in the league. They have arguably the most talented receiving trio in the league with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and first round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba and adding rookie Zach Charbonnet to a running back room already containing Kenneth Walker gives the Seahawks threats an impressive double threat in the running game. This team has the potential to be a top five offense this season.

It was the defence that let the Seahawks down last season, finishing 25th in points allowed, but they have made massive improvements in this area over the offseason. With the fifth overall pick in the draft, the Seattle added cornerback Devon Witherspoon to a secondary already containing Tariq Woolen, Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams and this unit has the potential to be one of the very best in the league. Then, there was the return of Bobby Wagner to Seattle, joining Jordan Brooks, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe in a very solid linebacker group. Jarran Reed was also brought in, bolstering a defensive line that also managed to sign Dre’Mont Jones to a new deal over the offseason. Overall, the Seattle Seahawks are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball and with Pete Carroll at the helm, a run all the way to the Super Bowl is a real possibility for this team.

Last season, in their opinion, the Niners only missed out on a trip to the Super Bowl due to running out of quarterbacks in the NFC Championship game against the Eagles. It was at quarterback that the news in San Francisco focussed on this offseason as ultimately Trey Lance was traded away and Sam Darnold was brought in to back up Brock Purdy. The emergence of Purdy as a capable starting quarterback was one that nobody saw coming at the start of last season but after impressing at the end of last season, the starting quarterback job in San Fransico is undoubtedly his. That’s not to say that there aren’t concerns over him though. His impressive performances are from a relatively small sample size and there is no guarantee he will be able to reproduce this form this season, especially as he is coming off elbow surgery. Plus, Purdy was a relative unknown in the league last season, but this season will be different. Opposing defensive coordinators will be analysing his weaknesses and looking to take advantage of them. He may very well come in this season and pick up from where he left off but, more realistically, he is likely to experience a lot more struggles this year.

This Niners do have a very talented roster though on both sides of the ball. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are a very impressive collection of weapons for Purdy and they, with Kyle Shanahan’s system, give him the best chance to thrive. It is on the defensive side of the ball though that the Niners truly excel. They finished last season with the number one ranked defense but they have undergone some changes over the offseason. Samson Ebukam, Charles Omenihu, Jimmy Ward and Emmanuel Moseley will all be missed this year, but the signing of defensive tackle Jayvon Hargrave from the Eagles was a huge coup for the team. Possibly, the biggest loss was defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, but the Niners have dealt with DCs being snatched up for head coaching jobs in the past and the appointment of Steve Wilks is a good one.

The Niners should make the playoffs this season but with my expectations that Brock Purdy will find year two in the NFL a bit more difficult, they may have to settle for a wildcard spot.

The LA Rams are one of the biggest unknowns going into the 2023 season. Last year, they followed up their Super Bowl winning season with a dismal 5-12 record, although their season was wrecked by injuries to Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. All three of those are back this season but a lot of their other big names are not. Jalen Ramsey, Leonard Floyd, Bobby Wagner, Allen Robinson, A’Shawn Robinson, Greg Gaines, Talor Rapp, Nick Scott and Matt Gay have all left the Rams and it will be mainly rookies that fill these spots. The Rams are paying back some of the debt from building their Super Bowl winning roster as they cut their salary cap in preparation for a rebuild next summer, but they still expect to challenge this year.

The reason for this is their offense. If Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp can stay fit, then they have one of the most successful quarterback-receiver partnerships in the league. If is an important word though, with Cooper Kupp currently seeing a specialist in Minnesota in an attempt to overcome his hamstring issues. The Rams do have other weapons on offense though. Tyler Higbee is a reliable target for Stafford, Van Jefferson is a solid starter, Tutu Atwell is expected to make a big leap this season and rookie Puka Nacua looks very promising. Cam Akers had a very good end to the season so if he can pick up where he left off, the Rams could have an effective running game to help out the passing game, although the offensive line is a big concern for this team. Possibly their biggest offensive weapon though is head coach Sean McVay’s mind and expect him to still get the very best out of this group of players.

On defense, the Rams have one of the very best players of all time in Aaron Donald but not a lot else. Their defensive line, aside from Donald, is especially concerning and apart from Ernest Jones, there

isn’t a great deal at linebacker either. The secondary is looking in better shape though with the return of John Johnson III to pair with Jordan Fuller at safety and rookie cornerback Tre Tomlinson looking very promising.

Ultimately, I see a very unpredictable season ahead for the Rams. They will be great in some games and lose badly in others. They could either make the playoffs or end up 5-12 again. A lot depends on the fitness of their key players.

If there was any doubt that the Arizona Cardinals were already looking towards 2024, that was quashed when they cut prospective starting quarterback Colt McCoy and brought in Josh Dobbs. With franchise quarterback Kyler Murray missing the start of the season, it will be interesting if they even have any desire to bring him back into the team at any point this year or will tanking be the way to go. With two first round picks in the 2024 draft, the Cardinals will be looking to pick up two rookies, one possibly a new franchise quarterback, to build around and so it may be in their interest for those picks to be as high up as possible. Their offseason moves back up this theory with DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Allen and Byron Murphy all moving on and this is definitely not a team built to win now.

There are reasons for Cardinals fans to be slightly optimistic (maybe) this season though. The biggest is the arrival of new head coach Jonathan Gannon, and he will definitely not be looking to lose games this season. There is also some talent on the offensive side of the ball with Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore and James Connor and Budda Baker is still one of the best safeties in the league. Ok, I may be grabbing at straws a bit here. Maybe Cardinals fans should just look forward to the 2024 draft.

Daniel Rowe

NFC Preview

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