Super Bowl LVII Betting Cheat sheet
Here we are! We’ve reached the peak of our NFL season, culminating in a gigantic clash between the champions of AFC and NFC. The Kansas City Chiefs will represent the AFC and the Philadelphia Eagles will champion for the NFC. Two stellar teams that have battled and earned they way to the “Big Game” with a chance to hoist the much sought after Lombardi Trophy. The Kelce brothers going head to head, Andy Reid coaching against his old employers, 2 Black QBs going at it for the first time on this stage (Bill Polian is fuming) , Patrick Mahomes’ legacy etc. The list of narratives is endless and the tension is palpable.
Before we proceed, here’s a recap of our Conference Championship Round bets;
Eagles v 49ers - Under 46,5 @19/20 (Win)
Chiefs v Bengals – Over 47,5 @20/23 (Loss)
Eagles to win Super Bowl @5/1. Pending
This brings us to 7-2 for our favourite Playoff bets.
Historically speaking, Super Bowl betting lines tend to be very accurate as the odds makers always know where to split the baby, hence the house always winning. There is rarely ever any movement between the opening lines and closing lines, with sharp bettors on both sides of the money trading punches, usually making it fool’s gold to bet on the handicap. The Patrick Mahomes ankle injury updates have seen the line move from Eagles -2,5 to -1,5 and the Total from 49,5 to 51,5 on the back of some positive news on Mahomes’ end.
The Super Bowl usually offers an opportunity for us to explore less rigid markets with softer lines that offer us a smoother path to profits, making live betting a viable avenue . Based on the scoring during the game, the handicap may get as large as +7 or more at any given time, and that’s when we will be wagering on the current underdog as we expect the final result to be much closer. Furthermore, statistics show that teams tend to be more cautious and conservative in the Super Bowl given what’s at stake, which usually leads to low scoring, tightly contested affairs. With that in mind, it has proven to be profitable to bet the “Under” on Player Props, Team Totals etc., which has inevitably brought us to our favourite bet of the game.
There are many other ways to wager on a stand alone game as this one. For instance, if you favour the Eagles winning and don’t have a pending Outright Winner bet on them like we do, a good way to bet on them is to bet on Jalen Hurts to win the Super Bowl MVP. The rationale behind this is that historically speaking, the QB of the winning team usually wins the Super Bowl MVP, unless one of his teammates has an exceptional outing like Cooper Kupp and Von Miller who have won the accolade in recent memory, breaking the QB monogamy. We are in agreement with the bookies that the Eagles are the better side and betting favourites and would be leaning on them to bring the Lombardi to The City of Brotherly Love. The Chiefs do not plan to go out without a fight and we expect a good clash between these well matched opponents.
Favourite bet: Under 50,5 @19/20