Why The Philadelphia Eagles Win Super Bowl LVII
On Sunday, The Kansas City Chiefs will return to the Super Bowl for the 3rd time in four years and will face the Philadelphia Eagles who are at their first Super Bowl since their famous Nick Foles-led victory in Super Bowl LII, five years ago. This will be the first Super Bowl match-up containing both the AFC’s and NFC’s respective top-seeded teams. I thoroughly believe that the NFC outfit will come - here are a plethora of reasons why.
It feels slightly retractive and demeaning to the Eagles to make my first point about a Kansas deficiency rather than speaking of Philadelphia’s prowess. Nonetheless, I feel it is of great effectuality to their chances and it would be a disservice to not mention it. This deficiency comes in the form of a banged-up roster. Most prominently is the underlying, somewhat- debilitating ankle injury to Patrick Mahomes suffered in the Divisional Round against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Seemingly, the pain whilst not unbearable is lingering and Mahomes himself said that in the AFC Championship Game ‘I didn’t have that burst that I usually have’. Moreover, there seems to be a bug circulating the Kansas City Chiefs camp as Chris Jones saying he’s struggling and is ‘sick, [has a] sore throat and [is suffering] from congestion’. The wide receiver core seems to have gained a degree of fitness; however, Juju Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney all have suffered injuries in the Chief’s playoff berth towards the Super Bowl. All the aforementioned could merely be altruistic and mind-games but it is irrefutable that L’Jarius Sneed is yet to practice this week- which could allow Dallas Goederdt to go off against worser secondary opponents.
Offensively, the superficial data would point towards the Chiefs being stronger- with a slight metrical underperformance from the Eagles comparatively in Points Per Game; with KC averaging 29.2 whereas Philly have put up 28.1 this season. Furthermore, the Chiefs are slightly more efficient on third down conversions albeit only marginally. However, looking above and beyond the data it is impossible to ignore the prowess and utter dominance of Jalen Hurts this season. When Jalen Hurts has played this season, the Eagles have only lost once- running at a 16-1 record under the Texas-born quarterback. Therefore, in my opinion it is hard not to extrapolate this record and expect that Hurts will spearhead a victory once again. Notwithstanding the above, there is a myriad of other factors in and around the Eagles which make me assured that they will be victorious and Jalen Hurts is merely a prerequisite pinpoint.
Partick Mahomes will be in for a tough night on Sunday due to the imposing, powerful and ballistic pass-rush that the Eagles possess. There numbers have been unprecedented in recent history; amassing 70 sacks this year which is tied for the 3rd most ever in an NFL Season. This defensive line is outstanding in both its breadth and ability but also its depth and the universally desirable ability that Jonathan Gannon has to interchange his defensive artillery with minimal diminishing effect on performance levels. Whilst KC in 2022 do rank 3rd best in sacks allowed, I expect that the Eagles enforcers will be able to assert the dominion and that Mahomes will experience the isolation and desolate scrambling amidst pressure that he incurred during the 31-9 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. The most pertinent and game-altering matchup will be DPOY runner-up Haason Reddick matching up against Andrew Wiley; who was responsible for 9 of only 29 sacks that the Chiefs gave up this year. Moreover, the Chiefs have began to show greater deficiency in their pass protection. In the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals a fortnight ago, the Chiefs allowed #15 to be sacked 3 times at a pressure ratio of around 1:3 compared to seasonal normality closer to 1:4. This is certainly a pivotal facet of the game and will have a great dictation as to the result if the Eagles can capitalise and exploit their superiority.
In the Secondary, Philadelphia is similarly strong. This season they have allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the whole league, evidently indicative of their ability in coverage. Additionally, they have picked off opposition passes 17 times this season; tied fourth league wide. Statistically, they have held Wide Receivers to an average rating of 81.7 and TE’s to only 80.6 with the ‘big men’ only scoring three times yet picked off four times; hopefully for Philly this translates to a nullification of Kelce; KC’s most dangerous weapon. Cumulatively, the star-studded defensive line with the aforementioned Reddick, Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham in tandem with James Bradberry, C-J Gardner Johnson, Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox they could truly be destructive. On the turf, the Chiefs had an extremely mediocre game against the Bengals and the Eagles could continue to limit the output of the inexperienced Pacheco and McKinnon.
However, when push comes to shove contrary to the populist statement of ‘attack wins games, defence wins championships’ Philedelphia will need to outscore a Chiefs side who are likely to be productive irrespective of the Eagles prowess defensively. The least points the Chiefs have mustered in a game this year is 17 and they are showing no signs of slowing down whatsoever. Therefore, the Eagles must be efficient on offense but I have belief they will.
Jalen Hurts has had a truly breakthrough season amassing the most rushing touchdowns by A QB ever across this season. Jalen’s shoulder seemingly no longer Hurts (if you’ll excuse the pun) and he is at an optimal position to thrive on the biggest stage. Hurts fuels an explosive Philadelphia rush attack which ranked 3rd league-wide this season. A four-pronged threat of Boston Scott, Kenneth Gainwell, Emmanuel Sanders and Jalen Hurts will have to be contained by the Chiefs yet unfortunately for the Chiefs they have a semi-antithesis of their ideal defensive capabilities. Against RPO’s (run-play options) the Chiefs rank 19th for yards allowed and Sirianni will make the most out of this underdeveloped facet of Spagnola’s defense. In the air, the Eagles have outstanding pass protection fronted by veteran centre Jason Kelce and offensive tackle Lane Johnson who neither have allowed a sack this year; if the blocking assignments are configurated efficiently then Jalen Hurts will continue to have the low-pressure rate of 22.9% on passing attempts which has likely facilitated his impressive passing numbers this season.
The Eagles will have the QB Sneak up their sleeve ad hoc this weekend which could be a surprising factor in who wins- this year the Eagles have been avant-garde in a scrummage-esque approach to the Sneak which has been extremely successful; 29/33. Whereas, the Chiefs defence have only been successful in stopping QB sneaks 1/14 occasions and are yet to a configurate a response.
The last but by no means least reason that points me towards an Eagles win is the wideout matchups of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith against the rookies Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson respectively- the latter a by-product of Sneed’s aforementioned injury.
My Final Prediction: Eagles 26-21 Chiefs
